The trophy segment rewrote the record book in November 2025 while the broad market contracted.13Med
Origins
United States · United Kingdom · France · China (artists and consignors). Modern and contemporary; works before 1800 under Old Masters →; books and manuscripts under Rare Books →
Auction houses and advisers cite a decade as the minimum for round-trip costs of 30–40% to be absorbed, and most works are held far longer: 72% of high-net-worth collectors have received art by inheritance or gift, and 75% of heirs kept at least some of it. Reselling within a few years of purchase is penalised by the trade.16EstimateMed
Exit depth · physical
RoutesConsignment to auction (Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, Bonhams and regional houses); private sale through the auction house or a dealer; sale back to the originating gallery, often expected for living artists. Fractional platforms exist but are not an exit for a work already owned.1517HighActivityPublic auction sales were $20.7 bn in 2025, up 9%, within a $59.6 bn market of 41.5 m transactions. Nine of the year's ten top lots sold in one week in New York; the value of works over $10 m rose 30% while online-only sales fell to their lowest since 2019. Depth exists at the top and at the bottom, thinnest in the middle.15ReportedHighCostSotheby's standard seller's commission is 10% of hammer, negotiable above $500,000 and waived for trophy consignments; the buyer pays 28% on hammer to $2 m (£1.5 m), 22% to $8 m and 15% above since February 2026, which caps the hammer. Add marketing, insurance, shipping and, for unsold lots, a buy-in fee.1718HighTimeConsignment deadlines run two to four months before the sale; marquee sales are twice a year. Sotheby's pays within 45 days of the sale subject to the buyer settling. From decision to cash, four to eight months; a private sale can be faster at a price the dealer sets.17ReportedMed
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Since last update
Hong Kong modern and contemporary evening sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips (28–30 Sep) made $184.6m, up from $164.9m in spring, but with only one white-glove sale and lots withdrawn before Christie’s sale. A Hong Kong gallery closure over rent arrears points to weakness below the top.1314
Why Σ3
Value rests on expert appraisal and a few auction comparables; most works have no recent price. Exit means auction scheduling, guarantees and fees, over months. Title, provenance and attribution carry the largest risk of any market here.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 6 sections · 18 sources · open ↓close ↑
Modern and contemporary art, which is where most of the value and almost all of the volatility sits. A $60 billion market that returned to growth in 2025 after two years of contraction, carried by the very top: a single Klimt portrait accounted for a fifth of the largest auction week since 2021, and every one of the year's ten most expensive lots was sold in New York. This page covers the market's size and structure, the 2025 recovery, regional shares, the auction record book and the structural shifts the benchmark report identifies. No prices are carried as live values.
$59.6 bn
Global art sales 2025, +4%, first growth since 2022, still below the 2022 peak. Art Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report 2026 Estimate1
ISize and cycle
Arts Economics' estimates, which are the industry's only comprehensive series.
9% below 2023 and 7% below 2015; confidence returned in H2, strength above $10 m46
Both channels grew: dealers by 2% to $34.8 bn and public auctions by 9% to $20.7 bn, while reported private auction sales fell 4% to just under $4.2 bn as sellers returned to the saleroom.23 UBS frames the adjustment against the "Great Wealth Transfer", more than $83 trillion to pass between generations, shifting collecting toward women and younger buyers.1High, these are the report's own estimates; all values are Arts Economics' constructs from surveys and auction data, not observed totals.
Profitability diverged from sales: despite growth, 38% of dealers and 40% of mid-tier auction houses reported lower profits than the previous year; in the $250,000–500,000 dealer segment, 45% saw margins fall on rising sales. Costs, fairs, travel, regulation, shipping, rose faster than turnover.3High
IIRegional shares
New York for trophies, London stable, China flat.
United States
$26.0 bn
United Kingdom
$10.5 bn
China
$8.5 bn · 14%
France
$4.5 bn · +9%
2025 sales by market per the Art Basel & UBS report.23
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Market
2025
Note
United States
$26 bn; public auction sales +20% to just over $7 bn
All top-10 lots of 2025 sold in New York; dealers +2% with 43% up and 37% down6
United Kingdom
$10.5 bn
Imports +47%, exports −39%, domestic buying up, hub role thinning23
China (incl. Hong Kong)
$8.5 bn, +c.1%; third-largest at 14%
Mainland auctions stronger; Hong Kong weaker on international demand; property downturn weighs on confidence4
The report's geographic finding is that trade is regionalising: for a market built on the free movement of works through London, New York and Hong Kong, rising domestic buying and falling exports suggest some transactions now bypass the traditional hubs.3Med
IIIThe top end
November 2025 in New York rewrote the record book.
Sotheby's New York, 18 Nov 2025, Leonard A. Lauder Collection
$236.36 m
Second most expensive work at auction; record for modern art; Sotheby's record; hammer $205 m; more than double Klimt's prior record ($108.4 m, 2023)578
Landscape from the same collection; two landscapes $154.3 m combined58
$1.17 bn
Sotheby's New York November 2025 sales, highest series since 2021; the Klimt over 20% of it High5
>$2 bn
Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips combined in the November week; 16 artist records; 9 of the year's top 10 lots High8
$690 m
Christie's 20th-century sale, +41.9% on the prior November; Weis collection c.a third of it including a $62 m Rothko High10
Discrepancy logged: Sotheby's states its November New York series at $1.17 bn; a listicle gives "$1.7 bn" for the same sales and "nearly $1 bn" for Christie's Weis collection against Artnet's $690 m for the 20th-century sale that contained it. The auction house's own figure and Artnet's reporting are used.51110High
The Lauder collection, 55 works valued above $400 m, fetched $527.5 m in its evening sale alone; the Klimt drew at least six bidders over twenty minutes from a $130 m opening. Fresh-to-market single-owner collections are what the market is "hungry for", in Artnet's phrase.9710High
IVStructure of the trade
Two auction houses, thousands of dealers, and the fair as the meeting point.
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Channel
2025 position
Note
Dealers and galleries
$34.8 bn, 58% of the market
Fair sales rose to 35% of dealer sales from 31%; in-person engagement returned23
Public auction
$20.7 bn, +9%
Sotheby's, Christie's, Phillips dominate the top; mid-tier houses under margin pressure23
Private auction-house sales
c.$4.2 bn, −4%
Sellers returned to the room as confidence rose212
Online
$9.2 bn, 15%
Down from a 25% pandemic peak; the decline is a rebalancing, not a retreat312
Fairs
Art Basel (Basel, Miami, Hong Kong, Paris), Frieze and regional fairs
Rising participation cost is the dealers' main complaint3
Dealer sentiment for 2026 improved markedly, 43% expected turnover to rise, up from 33% a year earlier, with 38% expecting stability, on the strength of late-2025 fairs and auctions and record highs at the top.4High
Diamond parallel: the art market is the diamond market with the certificate removed. Value rests on attribution, provenance and condition established by experts rather than by a laboratory; the auction houses play the role of the bourse; and the "fresh to market single-owner collection" is the equivalent of an untouched parcel of rough. The difference is liquidity, a Klimt trades once a generation, a D-flawless every week. Hyp
VIndicators to monitor
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
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Indicator
Source & cadence
What it tells you
Global sales, channel and regional shares
Art Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report (Arts Economics), March annually
The benchmark series; revisions to prior years
Marquee auction weeks
Sotheby's, Christie's, Phillips, New York (May, November), London (March, October), Hong Kong (spring, autumn)
Top-end sentiment; sell-through and bought-in rates
Single-owner consignments announced
Auction-house releases, pre-season
Supply of trophy material
Dealer and fair reports
Art Basel, Frieze post-fair statements; Artnet and ARTnews reporting
Mid-market health and fair economics
Cross-border shipping and tariff regimes
USTR; UK and EU customs; Hong Kong policy
Regionalisation of trade
Wealth-transfer and collector surveys
UBS/Art Basel Survey of Global Collecting, autumn
Generational demand shift
VISources
Numbered in order of first citation. Arts Economics' report is the primary source; auction-house and trade-press figures are used for the record book. Sources 15–18 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.
Show 18 sources
Art Basel, "Global sales rise 4% to $59.6 billion in 2025, amid ongoing market recalibration", Mar 2026, headline figures; Paul Donovan and Clare McAndrew statements; Great Wealth Transfer ($83 tn).
UBS, "The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026", dealer $34.8 bn (+2%); public auction $20.7 bn (+9%); private auction c.$4.2 bn (−4%); US $26 bn; UK $10.5 bn; China $8.5 bn; regional performance; 2024 $57.5 bn (−12%) with transactions +3%.
Artlyst, "Art Basel And UBS Global Market Report 2026 Insights", 21 Jun 2026, and MyArtBroker, "Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report 2026: Key Trends", 29 Jun 2026, fair share of dealer sales 31%→35%; online $9.2 bn, 15%, lowest since 2019, 25% peak in 2020; China 14%; France $4.5 bn (+9%); UK imports +47% / exports −39%; profitability findings (38% of dealers, 40% of mid-tier houses, 45% in the $250k–500k segment).
Artinfoland, "The Art Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report 2026", 20 Mar 2026, released 12 Mar 2026; 245 pages; 9% below 2023 and 7% below 2015; dealer sentiment 43%/38%; Hong Kong and mainland dynamics. Secondary. Med
Sotheby's, "$236.4 Million Klimt Portrait Sets Records as Sotheby's Inaugurates the Breuer", 22 Nov 2025, $1.17 bn series; Klimt over 20%; landscapes $154.3 m; Agnes Martin $17.6 m; Van Gogh drawing record.
UBS (US), "Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026", 19 Mar 2026, US public auction sales +20% to just over $7 bn; all top-10 lots in New York; US dealers +2% (43% up, 37% down).
The Value, "At US$236.3m, Klimt's Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer becomes the second most expensive work ever auctioned", 19 Nov 2025, all-time ranking with prices; hammer $205 m; provenance; bidding from $130 m.
Artsy, "The 10 Most Expensive Auction Works in 2025", 18 Dec 2025, $236.36 m; November week over $2 bn across three houses; 16 artist records; 9 of top 10 in the autumn; Blumenwiese $86 m.
CNN, "Rare Klimt painting smashes auction records at $236.4 million", 18 Nov 2025, Lauder evening sale $527.5 m against a $400 m estimate; Munch $35.1 m; prior Klimt record $108.4 m; and ARTnews, 19 Nov 2025, Picasso $179.4 m as the prior modern record; 55-work collection.
Artnet News, "Klimt, Kahlo, and a Comeback? New York's Auctions, Recapped", 25 Nov 2025, Christie's $690 m 20th-century sale (+41.9%); Weis collection c.one-third; $62 m Rothko; Katya Kazakina's "hungry for fresh single-owner collections".
Nasdaq, "The Most Expensive Auction Items Sold This Past Year", "$1.7 billion" Sotheby's figure and "nearly $1 billion" Christie's figure; retained to document the discrepancy. Low
MyArtBroker, as source 3, sellers returning to auction; online rebalancing interpretation. Med
ARTnews, "Strong Hong Kong Evening Sales… Mask Key Hurdles in Asia’s Art Market", Oct 2026. Combined $184.6m (spring $164.9m); one white-glove sale; Tang Contemporary space closed. artnews.comMed
MyArtBroker, "September 2026 Print Auction Results", Oct 2026. London print sales £8.72m hammer, +34% y/y on similar lot count. myartbroker.comMed
Art Basel & UBS, "The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026", 12 Mar 2026, Clare McAndrew, Arts Economics: global sales $59.6 bn (+4%); public auction $20.7 bn (+9%); dealer $34.8 bn (+2%); private sales $4.2 bn; 41.5 m transactions; works over $10 m +30%; online $9.2 bn, lowest since 2019; nine of top ten lots in one November week. artbasel.comHigh
Art Basel & UBS, "Survey of Global Collecting 2026", Oct 2026, 72% of HNW collectors have received art through will, bequest or gift (92% UK, 86% US); 75% of those retained at least some; 23% plan to sell within 12 months, 39% to buy. Via MyArtBroker summary. myartbroker.comMed
Sotheby's, "Buy & Sell at Sotheby's", standard seller's commission 10% of hammer; minimum $500 on lots with a low estimate of $5,000 or less, sold or unsold; payment within 45 days of sale provided the buyer has paid. sothebys.comHigh
The Art Newspaper, "Sotheby's hikes buyer's premiums as auction houses test new fee structures", 17 Feb 2026, from 13 Feb 2026: 28% to $2 m (£1.5 m), 22% from $2 m to $8 m (£1.5–6 m), 15% above; Phillips early-bid structure; Christie's structure retained from Sep 2025. theartnewspaper.comHigh