ΣΟΦΙΑ analyses markets that have almost nothing in common. Gold has an exchange, a daily fix and a century of data; saffron has none of these. The method is what makes them comparable.
Every market is read in the same seven-step sequence, to the same evidence rules. That reading produces four structural ratings, and ΣΟΦΙΑ adds one opinion on top: the Σ grade. Each part below is one line; open it for the full thresholds and definitions.
Both sit in the same safe and pass through the same jeweller. Read with the same method, one is a phone call to sell and the other waits for a laboratory and an auction.
Ratings as carried on each brief at its last update. Neither grade is a view on which will be worth more; a Σ4 asset can outperform a Σ1 and still be the harder one to own.
Seven questions, asked of every market in the same order: supply, demand, concentration, liquidity, scarcity, provenance, price formation.
A reader who understands the rare-earth separation bottleneck can read the Port benefício, the Habanos monopoly and the De Beers sight as versions of one mechanism. The sequence is what makes those parallels visible.
Two formats. A data-driven page is used where a statistical body publishes a series; an overview page where the market is defined by institutions, history and custom. The format changes the layout, never the sequence, the evidence rules or the standard of proof.
What may appear on a page: every figure cited or absent, no live prices, discrepancies shown, inference marked. Source hierarchy, tags, refresh and cadence rules.
A page is refreshed when its sources have something new to say, not on a calendar. The cadence follows the slowest input that can change the brief: an exchange price moves daily, an auction result arrives quarterly, a vintage once a year. Every page shows its own "Data as of" date regardless of cadence.
Four criteria-based scales, each Low, Medium or High: supply concentration, liquidity, scarcity, provenance risk. Bands describe structure, are never combined into a score.
Where the power to set price sits, not where the material comes out of the ground. We rate whichever stage of the chain actually holds that power and say plainly which stage it is. Rare earths are rated on separation, not mining; cocoa on two marketing boards, not millions of farms; Port on the benefício and two family groups, not its 19,000 growers.
Whether a standard unit can be turned into money at a price the seller could have known in advance. Liquidity is rated for the market, not the moment. A whisky cask and a bottle of the same whisky rate differently, and the page says which is rated.
Whether supply can respond to price, and how quickly. Many of these markets have a scarce apex and an abundant base: wild white truffles against farmed black, Ōma bluefin against ranched. The page rates the apex and says so. Substitution pulls a rating toward Low regardless of what natural supply does.
The chance that origin, species, grade or lineage is misstated, weighed against the strength of the control that would catch it. A CITES caviar label, a Kimberley Process certificate and a phytosanitary certificate all attest that a document was issued; none attests that the tin, the parcel or the box holds what the document describes. A 2023 genetic study of 149 Lower-Danube caviar samples found 21% illegally wild-caught and 32% deceptive to the consumer, every one of them labelled.
The Σ grade, Σ1 to Σ5: ΣΟΦΙΑ's own opinion of how practical an asset is to hold, weighed across six factors. A house view, provisional, never a view on return.
What is rated. Where the good itself can be held, the grade covers the physical asset. Where it cannot, because it perishes, is unstorable or has no investable form, the grade covers the most direct route to exposure and names it under the grade, for example "Route: futures" or "Route: listed producer". Where no practical route has been identified, the grade is Σ5.
Why intangible premium is a factor. A premium can disappear without the asset changing: the carbon in a diamond is the same after lab-grown stones arrive, but the natural premium is not. A premium is set by sentiment, so independent valuation is harder and buyers can be scarce when a holder needs to sell. It concentrates fraud risk, because the larger the premium the greater the reward for faking provenance. And it often depends on others to sustain it, through category marketing, brand systems or a ceremonial market. The factor records that the holder carries that risk. It is not a judgement that the premium is wrong or will fall.
Rationale and status. The grade is a judgement across the six factors, not their average, and never a composite with the four scales. Every grade carries a short written rationale on its market page, held to the same evidence rules as any page. Grades, scores and rationales are provisional, reviewed at each refresh; a grade that changes carries a note of what changed and why.
Two descriptive fields on each market brief, added October 2026. Neither is a rating and neither enters the Σ grade; they sit beside Liquidity and say, in plain terms, how long the asset is usually held and what leaving it involves.
77 terms used across the market and theme pages, each linked to the pages where it applies.
ΣΟΦΙΑ publishes market intelligence and data. It does not publish investment advice, does not accept payment for coverage, and does not carry advertising. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything, and no page carries a price target.