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Markets · Cellar & Collectibles

Watches

Σ3Specialist
Physical · 5 Oct 2026
Price regimeAs of 5 Oct 2026

Secondary prices stabilising after the 2022–24 bust; primary export value held by the top of the pyramid.14Med

Origins
Switzerland
Principal markets
United States · China and Hong Kong · Japan · Singapore · UAE
Structure
Supply concentrationHighLiquidityMediumScarcityLowProvenance riskMedium
Holding horizon
5–10 years
Dealers and platforms cite a five- to ten-year hold for references expected to appreciate; anything shorter is exposed to the dealer spread on both legs. The 2022–24 bust showed the horizon can be dictated by the cycle: a watch bought at the 2022 peak is still under water in 2026 for most references.EstimateMed
Exit depth · physical
RoutesSale to a dealer for an immediate offer; consignment to a dealer or platform; listing on a marketplace such as Chrono24 (over 500,000 listings, buyers in 150 countries); auction at Phillips, Sotheby's, Christie's or Antiquorum for rare references.16 17High ActivityThe pre-owned market turned over about $17 bn in 2025, Rolex alone $5.7 bn. On Chrono24 a correctly priced listing typically sells in two to eight weeks; instant-offer dealers pay in one to five days at 70–85% of retail.17ReportedMed CostPrivate marketplace sale 6.5% commission; platform consignment 13–19%; dealer buy-in priced at a discount of 15–30% to retail; auction seller's commission negotiable plus a buyer's premium of 25%+ that caps the hammer. Service history and box-and-papers move the price by more than the fee.16 17High TimeDealer sale: days, payout one to three business days after receipt. Marketplace: weeks to sell, then escrow release about seven days after delivery. Auction: consignment deadlines run two to four months ahead of sale, payment about 35 days after.16 17 18ReportedMed

Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.

Since last update

Swiss watch exports rose 9.1% in August to CHF 1.79bn, the fourth straight monthly gain, turning the 12-month average positive for the first time in two years; year to date +1.7%. The US, still the largest market, fell 19.4%; the UK (+46%) and China (+16%) led. France’s +113% likely reflects logistics routing, per FH.1415

Why Σ3

Secondary prices are visible through auction results and dealer platforms. Exit within weeks is possible for leading references, slower for others. Custody is simple; authentication and service history decide value.

The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →

Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 6 sections · 18 sources · open ↓close ↑

A CHF 25 billion export industry in which four privately owned brands take half the value, the ultra-high end is the only growing segment, and a secondary market of $17 billion has just finished a three-year correction from its March 2022 peak. This page covers the primary market, concentration, the pre-owned market and its indices, and the structural shift of the trade from retail to resale. No prices or index levels are carried as live values.

CHF 24.4 bn
Swiss wristwatch exports 2025, −1.7%; 14.6 m units, −4.8% Reported1
49.1%
Share of industry sales held by Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille Estimate4
$17 bn
Pre-owned sales 2025; Rolex $5.7 bn of it Estimate3
37%
Export value from watches above CHF 50,000, 1.4% of units, 89% of growth Reported4

IThe primary market

Swiss exports as the industry's only comprehensive statistic.

2025 (FH)ValueChangeNote
Wristwatches exportedCHF 24.4 bn−1.7%Watches are the bulk of watchmaking exports High1
Total watchmaking exportsCHF 25.6 bn−1.7%Includes movements, parts, clocks High2
Units14.6 m−4.8%740,000 fewer; 9.4 m quartz, 5.2 m mechanical High1 4
Watches above CHF 3,000 export price,−1.9%"Set the tone" for the decline in value High1
Estimated retail marketc.CHF 49 bn,Morgan Stanley: c.CHF 25.9 bn wholesale × 1.6 Med4
Employment−835 jobs−1.3%First decline since the post-COVID recovery; over a quarter of firms on short-time working Med2

The FH expected 2026 "at best" to remain steady, with the US improving after a 19.2% December rise and China not expected to recover quickly; upstream suppliers were described as under particular pressure.1 January 2026 showed value −3.6% on units +2.0%, a market clearing at lower average value, with the caveat that January is the most volatile month.2 High

Discrepancy logged: CHF 24.4 bn (wristwatches) and CHF 25.6 bn (all watchmaking exports) are both FH figures for 2025 and both fell 1.7%; commentary that mixes them is not an error, only a scope difference.1 2

IIConcentration

Private brands, sports-steel scarcity and the top of the pyramid.

Top 4 brands
55%
4 private brands
49.1%
Top 4, 2024
52.4%
Private 4, 2019
36.7%

Shares of total Swiss industry sales per Morgan Stanley / LuxeConsult. Top four: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Omega. Private four: Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille, +220 bp in a year and +1,240 bp since 2019 (2019 share derived).4 Med Derived

The structural facts behind the shares: watches above CHF 50,000 were 37% of export value and 89% of growth on 1.4% of units, while accessible luxury is "under pressure" and the middle tier is compressing.4 5 Rolex is reported to have managed supply downward again in 2025; Patek Philippe rolled back some US prices by up to c.8% after tariff and currency moves.2 Med

Diamond parallel: the sports-steel allocation system, waiting lists at authorised dealers, the Nautilus 5711 trading at multiples of retail, is a sight system run by the brand rather than by a cartel. Rolex's 2023 purchase of Bucherer put the producer inside its own retail and pre-owned channel, the equivalent of a rough producer buying the bourse. Hyp

IIIThe secondary market

A boom, a bust and a first year of stabilisation.

PeriodWatchCharts Overall Market Index and brand indicesSource
Late 2020 – Mar 2022Steep 18-month rise, driven by the big three (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet) and by crypto-era wealth6Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts
Mar – Dec 2022−26% from the peak for the 60 most-traded watches; Daytona −21%, Nautilus −19%, Royal Oak −15% by October6 7Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts
H1 2023Further −8% (Rolex −2%, Patek −7%, AP −8%); 72% of tracked Rolex references still above retail6Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts
Q2 2024−2.1% quarter on quarter, the ninth consecutive quarterly decline; −9.4% over a year; Rolex −7.1%, Patek −10.6%, AP −12.4%8Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts
2025Stabilisation and recovery in H2 after three years of decline; Overall, Rolex and Patek indices positive for the year; Patek +7.7% YTD by December; AP slightly negative9WatchCharts
$17 bn
Pre-owned sales 2025 across retailers, dealers and auctioneers Med3
$5.7 bn / $2.2 bn / $1.6 bn
Rolex / Patek Philippe / Audemars Piguet secondary sales 2025 Med3
3 brands
Capture more than half of secondary transaction value Med10

The correction was a supply story: dealers and individual investors unloaded inventory from mid-2022, and total available inventory for the big three remained far above 2021 levels into 2024.7 8 Morgan Stanley's long-run view was that if the value-retaining brands gradually meet primary demand, most models could trade near or below retail, a view the 2025 stabilisation has tested but not disproved.8 Patek Philippe's Nautilus was reported up 17.2% year on year in Q1 2026, led by the steel 5711/1A.11 Med

Note on data: WatchCharts indices are built from advertised and sold secondary prices, which sit well above what dealers pay to buy. They measure the ask side of the market, not liquidation value.6

IVStructure of the trade

From authorised dealer to brand-owned resale in fifteen years.

YearDevelopmentEffect
2003 / 2008Chrono24 founded; Hodinkee foundedOnline price discovery and enthusiast media12
2009Swiss exports −22.3%; pre-owned Rolex averaging c.$2,000The last discount-friendly market12
2016–19Ceramic Daytona (2016) and steel-sports allocation crisis; Nautilus 5711 still at or below retail as late as 2016Waiting lists become the norm12
2018–21Richemont buys Watchfinder (2018); The RealReal IPO (2019); Chrono24 and WatchBox raise capital (2021)Institutional money enters resale12
Dec 2022 – 2023Rolex Certified Pre-Owned launched via Bucherer; Rolex acquires Bucherer (2023); WatchBox merges into The 1916 CompanyThe producer takes control of its own secondary market12
2025Primary volumes shrink while resale stabilises"A continued shift in consumer demand from retail to resale"9

Secondary sales are forecast by one industry analyst to surpass primary sales by 2033.13 Low The more defensible statement is that the two markets are now run by the same actors: brands own retailers, retailers own resale platforms, and auction houses trade the same references as the dealers.3 12

VIndicators to monitor

Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.

IndicatorSource & cadenceWhat it tells you
Swiss watch exports by value, units and price bandFH, monthly; annual report each JanuaryPrimary demand; polarisation between price tiers
Exports by market (US, China, Hong Kong, Japan)FH, monthlyTariff and Chinese-demand effects
Secondary indices and inventory levelsWatchCharts monthly; Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts quarterlyResale regime; supply overhang
Brand market sharesMorgan Stanley / LuxeConsult, annual (March)Concentration in the private four
Retail price changes and supply management by Rolex and PatekCompany and dealer announcementsPremium-to-retail compression
Auction resultsPhillips, Christie's, Sotheby's, seasonal Geneva, Hong Kong, New York salesTop-of-market sentiment
Short-time working and employmentConvention patronale, annualSupply-chain stress

VISources

Numbered in order of first citation. FH export statistics are primary; Morgan Stanley / WatchCharts figures are reported second-hand and marked Med. Sources 16–18 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.

Show 18 sources
  1. Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), "Swiss watch exports in 2025", 29 Jan 2026, CHF 24.4 bn (−1.7%); 14.6 m units (−4.8%, −740,000); above-CHF-3,000 segment −1.9%; 2026 outlook; US +19.2% in December.
  2. Velociphile (Substack), "Swiss Watch Exports 2025: The Numbers Behind the Downturn", 20 Jun 2026, CHF 25.6 bn total; employment −835 (−1.3%); Kurzarbeit; January 2026 value −3.6% / units +2.0%; Rolex supply management; Patek US repricing. Med
  3. WatchPro, "Pre-owned Watch Sales Hit $17bn In 2025, $5.7bn From Rolex", 5 Feb 2026, reporting the WatchCharts 2025 report; Patek $2.2 bn, AP $1.6 bn, Omega $697 m, Richard Mille $672 m; data sources across retailers, dealers and auctioneers. Med
  4. Revolution Watch, "What we can learn from Morgan Stanley's Ninth Annual Swiss Watch Report", 5 Mar 2026, wholesale CHF 25.9 bn and retail c.CHF 49 bn; 9.4 m quartz / 5.2 m mechanical; top four 55% (52.4% in 2024); private four 49.1%, +220 bp, +1,240 bp vs 2019; above CHF 50,000 = 37% of value, 89% of growth, 1.4% of units. Med
  5. Watchype Magazine, "Swiss Watch Industry 2025: New Market vs Secondary Market", 26 Feb 2026, polarisation; AP secondary value +60%, Patek +40%, Vacheron +70%. Med
  6. WatchPro, "Secondary Market Prices At Two-year Lows…", 25 Jul 2023, −26% Mar–Dec 2022; H1 2023 −8% with brand splits; 72% of Rolex references above retail; note that indices use advertised and sold prices.
  7. Robb Report, "Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet Prices Will Keep Falling…", 17 Oct 2022, Daytona −21%, Nautilus −19%, Royal Oak −15% since the peak; Chrono24 on supply overtaking demand in May 2022; Nautilus 5711A $240,000 → $190,000 against $35,000 retail.
  8. Forbes (G. Friesen), "Swiss Luxury Watch Market Struggles To Find A Bottom", 16 Jul 2024, Q2 2024 −2.1%, ninth consecutive quarterly decline; −9.4% annual; brand splits; Morgan Stanley long-run view; inventory above 2021 levels.
  9. WatchCharts, "December and Full Year 2025 Watch Market Update", 19 Dec 2025, H2 2025 stabilisation; Overall, Rolex and Patek indices positive YTD; Patek +7.7%; AP slightly negative; retail-to-resale shift.
  10. Trilogy Jewellers, "Morgan Stanley Watch Market Review 2025, The Highlights", 8 Aug 2025, Q2 2025 −0.3%; three brands over 50% of secondary transaction value; Deloitte 2024 study: peak March 2022, −16% over two years. Med
  11. WatchCharts, "Patek Philippe Nautilus Market Index", Q1 2026 +2.8%, +17.2% year on year; 5711/1A +29.8% (dated observation, not a live value).
  12. WatchesOff5th, "How the Watch Market Changed: 2010 vs 2026", 31 Jul 2026, timeline with sources: Chrono24 2003, Hodinkee 2008, 2009 export decline 22.3%, ceramic Daytona 2016, Watchfinder 2018, RealReal IPO 2019, Chrono24 and WatchBox funding 2021, Rolex CPO Dec 2022, Bucherer acquisition 2023, 1916 Company merger 2023. Retailer compilation of primary reports. Med
  13. WatchCharts, press listing, "Luxury Watch Secondary Market Forecast to Surpass Primary by 2033" (Watches by SJX, Jan 2023). Low
  14. JCK, "Swiss Watch Exports to the U.S. Fell Nearly 20% in August", 17 Sep 2026. FH data: world +9.1%; US −19.4% to CHF 197.5m; UK +46.1%; China +15.8%; Japan +22.1%. jckonline.com High
  15. Bloomberg, "Swiss Watch Exports Grow for Fourth Month, Overcoming US Slump", 17 Sep 2026. 12-month moving average positive for the first time in two years. bloomberg.com High
  16. Chrono24, "Help and Frequently Asked Questions", accessed 23 Oct 2026, private-seller commission 6.5% on sale, free listing; escrow payout within seven business days of delivery; "Sell your watch to Chrono24" quote in 1–3 business days, payout 1–3 days after receipt. Chrono24 Magazine gives consignment commission as 13–19%. chrono24.co.uk High
  17. Grailr, "Where to Sell a Watch Online in 2026, Ranked by Net Payout", Sep 2026, marketplace time to sale 2–8 weeks and net 80–93% of market value; instant-offer platforms pay in 1–5 days at 70–85% of retail; eBay total fees 13–15%; Chrono24 500,000+ listings. Secondary. grailr.watch Med
  18. Sotheby's, "Buy & Sell at Sotheby's", seller's commission standard 10% of hammer; payment within 45 days of sale subject to buyer's payment; buyer's premium tiers revised 13 Feb 2026 (28% to $2 m, 22% to $8 m, 15% above) per The Art Newspaper, 17 Feb 2026. sothebys.com High
IThe primary marketIIConcentrationIIIThe secondary marketIVStructure of the tradeVIndicators to monitorVISources
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Themes that cover this market
Provenance and verificationSanctions, tariffs and originStorage, custody and insuranceTax and legal wrappersFractional and fund accessExit depth: who buys when you sellAuction or dealerWho sets the price
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