This is a thematic page. It carries no Market Snapshot ratings; the Supply concentration line on each sector page remains the record and is quoted here verbatim.
IDiscovered or administered
A price is discovered when it is the result of trades between many buyers and sellers who can each walk away, and administered when one party decides it and the others decide only whether to deal. Most of the 51 markets sit between the two: a price list that is really a seller's asking price, an auction where one hammer sets the comparable for a decade, a benchmark that is set in a room open to members only.
The Supply concentration line on each page records where the power sits. It is a structural rating, not a judgement of conduct: the Québec Federation administers the maple price under provincial law and publishes it; De Beers sells about a third of the world's rough to a fixed list of buyers at prices it sets 1 20; Hermès allocates Birkins by client and the resale premium is the gap between its price and the market's. 21 None of this is hidden. What it means for a holder is that the quoted price is a decision, and decisions change.
The register in Section III sorts the markets by regime. The pattern that emerges is that the power to set price rarely sits at the mine, the vineyard or the farm. It sits one or two steps up the chain, at the refiner, the separator, the marketing board, the house or the saleroom, and the sector pages' concentration lines say so: gold is "Medium, refining (mine Low)"; copper "High, refining (mine Medium)"; rare earths "High, separation (mining lower)". 20 22 23
IISix price regimes
Every reference price on the market pages is made in one of six ways. The names are this page's; the descriptions are drawn from the sector pages.
| Regime | How the price is made | Who can see it | What it is worth to a holder | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange | Continuous trading of a standard contract on a regulated venue; the price is the last trade | Everyone, in real time | A price at which a dealer must deal, less a spread | Copper, Oil & Gas, Cocoa, Coffee; Uranium trust units; gold, silver and PGM futures |
| Benchmark auction | A regulated auction among members, once or twice a day, administered by an independent body | Everyone, after the fact | The dealer's reference; physical trades settle at or near it | Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium (LBMA prices, IBA-administered) |
| Trade platform | Firm bids and offers between professionals; the mid-price is published and drives an index | Members; the public sees the index | A price a merchant can realise, less commission | Fine Wine, Champagne, Port (Liv-ex); Coins (Greysheet bid); Parmigiano (Borsa Merci); Olive Oil (Poolred); Pu-erh (Donghe) |
| Asking list | A published schedule of sellers' asking prices, compiled by a trade body or publisher; not a record of transactions | Subscribers | A ceiling: trade prices run 20–40% below the Rapaport list and a dealer bid sits below that 24 | Polished Diamonds (Rapaport, RapNet); dealer price ladders for Oud, Rare Earths, Saffron |
| Calendar auction | One hammer, on one day, among those present; it becomes the comparable until the next appearance | Everyone, for that lot; nothing between sales | A data point, possibly years old, set by the one or two underbidders in the room | Art, Old Masters, Classic Cars, Gemstones, Jewellery, Pearls, Jade, Books, Stamps, Fossils, Whisky bottles, Cigars, Guitars, Handbags, Watches, Racehorses, Falcons, Bluefin, Wagyu, Tea |
| Administered | One seller, board or house sets the price and often the buyer list; the market's only choice is to accept or not | The buyers it chooses | Stable while it holds; a two-tier market forms outside it (secondary sight boxes, the Birkin resale premium, the maple reserve) | Rough Diamonds (sights), Maple Syrup (PPAQ), Handbags (allocation), Vanilla (minimum export price), Cocoa farm-gate (marketing boards), Champagne yield, Port benefício, Japanese whisky allocation |
IIIThe register, market by market
The Supply concentration line as each page states it, the regime, and who sets the reference price. Concentration is quoted, not re-rated.
| Market | Supply concentration (sector page) | Regime | Who sets the reference price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Medium, refining (mine Low) | Benchmark auction | LBMA Gold Price, IBA auction twice daily; COMEX |
| Silver | Medium | Benchmark auction | LBMA Silver Price; COMEX |
| Platinum group metals | High | Benchmark auction | LBMA Platinum and Palladium Prices; rhodium by dealer quote, no benchmark |
| Copper | High, refining (mine Medium) | Exchange | LME, COMEX, SHFE trades |
| Oil & Gas | Medium | Exchange | ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and Henry Hub trades; OPEC+ output decisions behind them |
| Uranium | High; Kazatomprom and Cameco; Russia in enrichment | Exchange (units); consultants' estimate (metal) | The published spot price is a consultants' estimate from a thin market; term contracts are bilateral |
| Rare Earths | High, separation (mining lower) | Asking list | Chinese price reporters (SMM) and the two state groups; ex-China dealers quote at a premium and buy back at a discount |
| Cocoa | High, marketing boards | Exchange (world); Administered (farm gate) | ICE New York and London; the Conseil Café-Cacao and Cocobod set the farm-gate price for the two largest origins |
| Coffee | Medium | Exchange | ICE arabica and robusta; specialty lots priced by cupping score and direct contract |
| Fine Wine | Low | Trade platform | Liv-ex mid-price among 620+ merchants; release prices set by the château and the Bordeaux négoce |
| Champagne | High; LVMH houses, a regulated appellation, yield set annually | Trade platform; Administered (yield) | Liv-ex Champagne 50; the Comité Champagne sets the annual yield, the houses set release |
| Port | High, benefício and two family groups | Trade platform; Administered (benefício) | Liv-ex Port 50 via merchants; the IVDP sets the benefício, the shippers declare vintages |
| Scotch Whisky | High | Calendar auction (bottles); Dealer quote (casks) | Monthly online auctions; distillers' release prices; cask brokers' own quotes |
| Rare Whisky Casks | Low at the cask level; high in the trade (Diageo, Pernod, Edrington) | Dealer quote | The broker, usually the one that sold the cask; no market, no price list |
| Japanese Whisky | Very high; two companies, two closed stills | Administered (release); Calendar auction (secondary) | Suntory and Nikka set release price and allocate by ballot; the secondary premium is the gap |
| Cigars | High | Administered (release); Calendar auction | Habanos S.A. sets release and allocation; specialist auctions for aged boxes |
| Pu-erh Tea | High for factory tea (Dayi); dispersed for mountain tea | Trade platform (Dayi); Dealer quote (antique) | Donghe quotation platform and Fangcun dealers for Dayi; a handful of dealers for antique cakes |
| Tea | High | Calendar auction | Prefectural auctions (Kyoto, Kagoshima) for tencha; Mombasa and Kolkata for bulk |
| Parmigiano Reggiano | Medium; one consortium sets output and grades every wheel | Trade platform; Administered (output) | Parma Borsa Merci weekly list by maturity; the Consorzio sets production quotas |
| Olive Oil | High | Trade platform | Poolred and Infaoliva in Jaén, ISMEA in Italy, weekly origin prices; Deoleo as the largest bottler |
| Saffron | High | Asking list | Iranian exporters' quotes and an exchange-linked dashboard; the buyer's laboratory sets the grade, and so the price |
| Vanilla | High | Administered (floor); Dealer quote | Madagascar's official minimum export prices; importers' and flavour houses' bids above them |
| Frankincense | Medium | Dealer quote | Exporters in Berbera, Bosaso and Salalah; no exchange, no benchmark |
| Oud | Medium | Asking list | Dealer price ladders (wild US$800–15,000+/kg, plantation US$30–400); no benchmark |
| Manuka Honey | High | Exchange (equity); Dealer quote (honey) | NZX for Comvita; packers' MGO-graded bids for drums |
| Maple Syrup | Very high; Québec 72% of world output under one seller | Administered | The Fédération des producteurs acéricoles du Québec sets the bulk price, grades on delivery and decides what ships or goes to reserve |
| Dates | Medium | Calendar auction; Dealer quote | Buraidah and Madinah wholesale markets in season; packers under contract |
| Truffles | Medium | Calendar auction | Weekly wholesale markets (Richerenches, Carpentras, Alba) in season |
| Caviar | Medium–High | Dealer quote | Farm-to-importer contracts; Kaluga Queen as the largest producer, private |
| Bluefin Tuna | Medium | Calendar auction | Toyosu daily auction among licensed buyers; the New Year fish is a ceremony, not a price |
| Wagyu | High | Calendar auction | About 170 licensed carcass auctions after JMGA grading; an A4 result cuts the price by a quarter |
| Racehorses | Medium; Kentucky, two stallion fees | Calendar auction | Keeneland and Tattersalls hammer; every yearling price is a derivative of a stallion fee |
| Breeding Stallions | High; three studs, two countries | Administered (fee); Dealer quote (shares) | The stud sets the covering fee each season; shares trade privately with the syndicate's approval |
| Falcons | Medium; c. 70 farms in 20+ countries sell into one region | Calendar auction | The Riyadh breeders' auction and the Saudi exhibition sales; 2026 rules tie racing eligibility to auction purchase |
| Rough Diamonds | High; De Beers and Alrosa half of world value, rough distribution administered | Administered (sights); Calendar auction (tenders) | De Beers prices and allocates ten sights a year to 45–50 sightholders; other miners by sealed tender; a secondary box market trades at a premium or discount to the sight price |
| Polished Diamonds | Medium; ~90% cut in India, retail fragmented | Asking list | The Rapaport list, sellers' asking prices; trade prices 20–40% below, dealer bids below that |
| Lab-Grown Diamonds | Medium | Asking list | Growers' wholesale quotes in Surat and Henan; retail asking prices tracked by aggregators; no floor but marginal cost |
| Coloured Gemstones | Medium–High, by stone | Calendar auction (polished); Administered (rough) | Geneva and Hong Kong hammers for the top; Gemfields' sealed-bid rough auctions, open to licensed cutters only |
| Pearls | Medium | Calendar auction | Natural: Geneva and Hong Kong hammers. Cultured: Paspaley's and others' sealed-bid wholesale sales, trade only |
| Jade | High; one country, one state enterprise | Administered (rough); Calendar auction (jewellery) | Myanmar Gems Enterprise emporia for rough; Hong Kong hammers for imperial grade; livestream sellers for mid-grade |
| Signed Jewellery | Medium; the houses control new supply | Administered (new); Calendar auction (secondary) | The houses set retail and production; Geneva, Hong Kong and New York hammers set the secondary comparable |
| Watches | High | Administered (retail); Trade platform (secondary) | Four brands hold 49% of industry sales and allocate references; Chrono24 and dealers set the secondary price |
| Handbags | High; one house controls new supply by allocation | Administered (retail); Calendar auction (secondary) | Hermès sets retail and allocates two quota bags a client a year; Sotheby's and direct buyers set the resale premium |
| Coins | Low | Trade platform | CDN Greysheet dealer bids for certified coins; Heritage hammers for rarities; the metal price for bullion grades |
| Stamps | Low | Calendar auction | Specialist house hammers; Stanley Gibbons catalogue as an asking list |
| Rare Books | Low | Calendar auction | Auction hammers, sixteen million of them on record; dealer asking prices above |
| Vintage Guitars & Instruments | Low; fixed stock dispersed among private owners | Dealer quote; Calendar auction | A handful of specialist dealers' asking prices; Heritage and Christie's hammers for records |
| Art | Low | Administered (primary); Calendar auction (secondary) | The gallery sets the primary price and chooses the buyer; Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips hammers set the secondary comparable |
| Old Masters | Low (fixed, dispersed) | Calendar auction | London, New York and Paris hammers; attribution, not supply, moves the price |
| Classic Cars | Low | Calendar auction | Monterey, Scottsdale and Paris hammers; online auctions below about $500k |
| Fossils & Meteorites | Low; dispersed finders, one dominant saleroom | Calendar auction | One Sotheby's department, one sale a year; three records since 2020, each by a different specimen |
Fifty-one rows, one per market brief. The second column is copied verbatim from the Structure line of each page as at 29 Oct 2026; the third and fourth paraphrase its text. Where a sector page is updated, it governs.
IVThe concentrated sellers
Where the sector pages name a single party or a small group with the power to set price, this is who they are and how much they hold.
| Market | Who | How much | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Syrup | Fédération des producteurs acéricoles du Québec | Québec is 72% of world output, sold through one seller at an administered price | High | 25 |
| Rough Diamonds | De Beers; Alrosa | De Beers "around a third" of world rough by its own account; the two together about half of world value; De Beers sells c. 90% of its output to 45–50 sightholders at ten sights a year | Med | 1 2 26 |
| Japanese Whisky | Suntory; Nikka (Asahi) | Two companies; the age-statement stock comes from two closed stills and is allocated by ballot | Med | 27 |
| Handbags | Hermès | One house; allocation of two Birkin, Kelly or Constance bags a client a year; resale premium about 2× retail for store-fresh | High | 21 |
| Watches | Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille | 49.1% of industry sales between four brands, each allocating its scarce references | Med | 28 |
| Jade | Myanmar Gems Enterprise | One country, one state enterprise, under sanction | High | 29 |
| Uranium | Kazatomprom; Cameco; Rosatom (enrichment) | Two miners dominate primary supply; Russia holds the enrichment step | Med | 30 |
| Breeding Stallions | Three studs | Three studs in two countries, as the sector page states, set the fees that every yearling price derives from | Med | 31 |
| Cocoa | Conseil Café-Cacao (Côte d'Ivoire); Cocobod (Ghana) | Two marketing boards set the farm-gate price for the two largest origins, about 60% of world beans; the world price is ICE's | Hyp | 32 |
| Champagne | Comité Champagne; LVMH houses | Yield set annually for the appellation; the largest houses set release price for prestige cuvées | Med | 33 |
| Scotch Whisky | Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Edrington | High concentration in the trade; brand owners set release and control most maturing stock | Med | 34 |
| Fossils | One Sotheby's department | Dispersed finders, one dominant saleroom; three records since 2020 set in its July sale | Med | 35 |
De Beers' share has fallen from about 85% at its peak to a third or less; one analyst put it at 35% by value in 2021, after the end of its Alrosa purchases. Med 2 3 Its parent has written the business down by $6.8bn over 2023–25. Med 3
VRooms the holder is not in
In many markets the price is discovered honestly, but among a closed set of participants. The private holder sees the result and pays an intermediary to reach it.
Liv-ex trades only between professionals; a private holder sells through a merchant who takes 10% or more. Greysheet bids are dealer-to-dealer. The Parma Borsa Merci lists prices for trade buyers. The price is real; the access is not. 36
Toyosu, the Japanese carcass auctions, Gemfields' rough tenders, the Kimberley-registered diamond tenders, Paspaley's pearl sales and the prefectural tencha auctions are open to licensed trade buyers. The holder of a fish, a stone or a leaf does not bid; the holder of equity in the buyer does, by proxy.
De Beers chooses its sightholders and what goes in their boxes; Hermès chooses who may buy a Birkin; Suntory allocates by ballot; the gallery chooses the collector. A secondary market forms immediately outside the door, and its premium or discount to the administered price is the only free price in the market. 26 21
The Rapaport list is sellers' asking prices and "isn't a record of actual transaction prices"; the sector page puts trade prices 20–40% below it and a private seller's realisation at 40–60% of retail. Dealer price ladders for oud, rare earths and saffron work the same way: the quote is the dealer's, in both directions. 24 37
VIThree patterns in the record
Power sits one step above the source
Mines, vineyards, farms and finders are dispersed in almost every market here. Concentration appears at the refiner, the separator, the marketing board, the house or the saleroom. The sector pages that split the line ("refining (mine Low)") are the ones to read for where a holder's price is actually made.
Watch: Chinese separation share in rare earths; refinery consolidation in copper and gold
An administered price breeds a free one next to it
Wherever one party sets the price and chooses the buyer, a second market forms outside the door: secondary sight boxes, the Birkin resale premium, the Japanese whisky ballot premium, the maple reserve stock, art flipped from gallery to auction. The gap between the two prices is the measure of how far the administered price is from what the market would pay.
Watch: the secondary box premium to De Beers' sight price; the Birkin resale ratio; ballot-to-auction gaps
When the administrator loses control, the fall is fastest
De Beers held roughly 85% of rough and now holds a third; its parent wrote down $6.8bn in three years and lab-grown took the engagement ring. The cask firms that quoted their own prices were insolvent by 2025. An administered price is stable until it is not, and the sector pages for diamonds and casks record what the transition cost holders. 3 38
Watch: Botswana's stake in De Beers and the sight system's future; maple reserve drawdowns
The Liquidity line on the sector pages is highest where the price is discovered on an exchange or benchmark, and lowest where it is administered or set by dealer quote. A holder cannot change who sets the price, but can read the regime before buying and know, for a cask or a polished stone, that the number quoted at entry is the seller's and the number at exit will be the buyer's. Hyp
VIIIndicators to monitor
- Any change of ownership at De Beers and whether the sight system survives it; Botswana holds 15% with pre-emptive rights Med 3.
- The Québec Federation's reserve level and any revision of the administered bulk price after a short season.
- Publication of any transaction-based diamond price index, which would move polished diamonds from Asking list to Trade platform.
- Hermès' and the watch brands' allocation policies, and the resale premium that measures them.
- Whether Liv-ex or any trade platform opens to private holders.
- Chinese export controls on rare-earth separation and the ex-China dealer premium.
VIIISources
- De Beers Group, "The World's Leading Diamond Company": "around a third of the global supply of rough diamonds" — accessed 29 Oct 2026
- Edahn Golan Diamond Research, "De Beers Timeline", Oct 2026: 35% by value and 28% by volume in 2021 — accessed 29 Oct 2026
- European Business Magazine, "A Diamond Isn't Forever: How De Beers Lost Its Grip", 20 Oct 2026 (secondary; write-down figures attributed to Anglo American results) — accessed 29 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Gold, market brief, Structure, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Handbags, market brief, Structure and Holding horizon, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Copper, market brief, Structure, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Rare Earths, market brief, Structure and Exit depth, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Polished Diamonds, market brief, Holding horizon and Cost, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Maple Syrup, market brief, Structure and Exit depth, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Rough Diamonds, market brief, Structure, Holding horizon and Exit depth, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Japanese Whisky, market brief, Structure and Holding horizon, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Watches, market brief, key figures, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Jade, market brief, Structure and Price regime, snapshot 19 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Uranium, market brief, Structure, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Breeding Stallions, market brief, Structure, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Cocoa, market brief, Structure and Origins, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Champagne, market brief, Structure, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Scotch Whisky and Rare Whisky Casks, market briefs, Structure, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Fossils & Meteorites, market brief, Structure and Holding horizon, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Fine Wine, Coins and Parmigiano Reggiano, market briefs, Exit depth, snapshot Oct 2026
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, "Tokenising scarce assets", Section III, citing Rapaport
- ΣΟΦΙΑ, Rare Whisky Casks, market brief, Holding horizon, snapshot 20 Oct 2026
Rows in the register (Section III) not separately numbered here are drawn from the Structure line and text of the linked market brief; each brief carries its own numbered sources. The cocoa marketing-board share (about 60% of world beans) is an inference from the Origins line of the sector page and was not re-verified for this page. Hyp