Toyosu first-auction records for Ōma bluefin, against a commercial price that has not followed.5High
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Re-checked 5 Oct 2026: no new Toyosu price series or quota decision since the last update; the 2026 New Year record (¥510.3m) and the 2025–26 Pacific catch-limit increase remain the latest data points.
Toyosu auction prices are visible but cover a perishable product. The route is ranching operations and seafood groups, bound by catch quotas set by ICCAT in the Atlantic and by the WCPFC and IATTC in the Pacific. Exit is through corporate equity or private sale.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
A wild fish pulled back from collapse by international quota, and then auctioned each New Year at a price that has nothing to do with the fish. Japan grades it by eye on the market floor; the world pays for the landing port. This page covers the ceremony, the stock and quota science, and what separates the ceremonial price from the commercial one. No prices are carried as live values.
A ceremony, not a price.
| Year | Winning bid | Fish | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ¥333.6 m | 278 kg, Ōma; first New Year auction after the move from Tsukiji | Kiyomura (Sushi Zanmai)2 4 |
| 2020–24 | , | Yamayuki, buying for the Onodera Group, wins five consecutive years4 | Yamayuki / Onodera |
| 2025 | ¥207 m | Second-highest on record at the time | Yamayuki / Onodera4 |
| 2026 | ¥510.3 m | 243 kg (AP, CNN) or 234 kg (Nippon.com), Ōma, Aomori; ¥2.1 m/kg; Yamayuki bid to ¥486 m before Kiyomura raised | Kiyomura (Sushi Zanmai)1 2 4 |
The ichiban maguro is a good-luck purchase and a marketing budget: two sushi chains compete for the headline, and the weak yen, inbound tourism and their rivalry have pushed the ceremonial price up while underlying commercial bluefin prices have faced downward pressure as Atlantic quotas rise and farmed volumes grow.4 5 Toyosu sells roughly 200 fresh and 1,000 frozen tuna a day; the auction floor is green to show off red flesh.5 In 2023 a director of an Ōma fisheries company was convicted of under-reporting catches, a reminder that the brand operates inside a quota system.5 High
The fish that came back, and the argument about how fast to catch it again.
| Stock | IUCN 2021 reassessment | Management | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic bluefin (Thunnus thynnus) | Endangered → Least Concern | ICCAT quotas, eastern and western stocks | Rising quotas on recovering stocks; the western Atlantic / Gulf of Mexico population still depleted5 |
| Pacific bluefin (T. orientalis) | Vulnerable → Near Threatened | IATTC–WCPFC joint working group | Catch limits raised 60% for 2025 and 2026; no harvest strategy adopted in 2025 despite NGO pressure3 5 |
| Southern bluefin (T. maccoyii) | Critically Endangered → Endangered | CCSBT | Ranched off Port Lincoln, Australia5 |
The IUCN's own coordinator cautioned that global improvement can mask depleted regional stocks and does not mean the world should eat more tuna.5 The 60% Pacific increase was, in the words of a Pew observer, "concerning to some because it was such a quick change".3 Farmed and ranched bluefin, wild juveniles fattened in pens, and in Japan full-cycle aquaculture, now supplies a growing share of the commercial market, decoupling everyday sashimi from the Ōma fish on the auction floor.5 High
What the two markets share, and where they diverge.
| Dimension | Bluefin tuna | Wagyu |
|---|---|---|
| Supply control | International quotas (ICCAT, WCPFC, CCSBT); wild stock plus ranching | Breed registry and prefectural cooperatives; farmed |
| Grading | Buyer inspection at auction, colour, texture, fat, tail cut | JMGA carcass grade; BMS 1–12; brand councils |
| Price discovery | Daily Toyosu auction; ceremonial New Year bid | Wholesale carcass auctions; brand premiums on top |
| Provenance marker | Landing port (Ōma) and method | Prefecture, strain (Tajima), ten-digit serial |
| Substitute | Farmed / ranched bluefin; other tunas | Australian and American wagyu; F1 crossbreds |
| Scarcity signal | Rising ceremonial price, falling commercial price | A5 at 75%+ of market: the top grade has stopped being scarce |
In both cases the Japanese system grades rigorously and then lets a place-name or a ceremony carry the luxury premium above the grade. The bluefin premium is defensible because the wild fish is genuinely finite; the wagyu premium is under pressure because the grade it rests on has become the norm.6 5 Hyp
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
| Indicator | Source & cadence | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Toyosu first-auction result | Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market; press, 5 January | Ceremonial sentiment and yen effect; not a commercial price |
| Toyosu daily tuna volumes and average prices | Market statistics, monthly | Commercial bluefin trend; not carried here |
| Stock assessments and catch limits | ICCAT (November), WCPFC/IATTC joint working group (annual), CCSBT | Whether the 60% Pacific increase holds; harvest-strategy adoption |
| IUCN Red List reassessments | IUCN, periodic | Conservation status by stock |
Numbered in order of first citation. Holding-horizon and exit-depth fields added 23 Oct 2026 from existing sources.