Unit prices sliding as the 2020 stockpile is worked off; export value below the 2020 peak, grade premia set by MGO rating.9Med
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Re-checked 5 Oct 2026: no new export statistics found since the last update. Ratings unchanged.
UMF and MGO grading supports valuation, but there is no exchange. The route is listed producers, chiefly in New Zealand. Authentication outside New Zealand remains a material risk.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
A monofloral honey from one shrub, sold at ten times the price of ordinary honey on the strength of a methylglyoxal number and a Māori name, which New Zealand spent eight years and lost trying to trademark. This page covers the grading systems, the export economics after a pandemic-era boom and bust, the hive collapse behind the supply side, the trans-Tasman naming war, and the counterfeit problem that a science definition was meant to solve. No prices are carried as live values.
Three layers: a legal definition, a trademarked grade, and competing commercial scales.
| Layer | Who sets it | What it tests | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MPI mānuka honey definition | New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries | Four chemical markers and a DNA marker from mānuka pollen; monofloral and multifloral thresholds | Mandatory for export labelled "mānuka" since 2018; a jar can legally leave New Zealand as mānuka without any UMF grade4 |
| UMF™ (Unique Mānuka Factor) | UMF Honey Association (UMFHA), licensed producers only | Methylglyoxal (MGO), leptosperin, DHA and HMF; grades 5+ to 30+ | New Zealand trademark; restricted to NZ licensees; the reference grade for premium retail4 3 |
| MGO | Commercial labelling (e.g. MGO 100+ to 1,300+ mg/kg) | Methylglyoxal content only | Widely used; UMF 26+ corresponds to roughly MGO 1,300+5 |
| KFactor, NPA and others | Individual brands | Pollen count or antibacterial equivalence | Proprietary layers on top of the MPI requirement4 |
The MPI legal test and UMFHA grading check different markers, which is why both can be true of one jar and neither substitutes for the other. The sector is fragmented, over 1,600 businesses, multiple grading systems creating consumer confusion, voluntary bodies without enforcement power, and failed attempts to unify under one organisation.4 1 High Mānuka is classified as a "standard food" in New Zealand and in the EU, US and China, which limits the health claims that can be made for it.1
A small volume, a large value, a declining unit price.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| NZ honey production, 2022 | 22,000 t | Half exported; NZ$455 m earned High2 |
| Mānuka share of export volume / revenue | 76% / 88% | To 40 markets High2 |
| Bulk mānuka, top of range | up to NZ$160/kg | MPI, 2022–23 High2 |
| Average export unit price, year to Mar 2023 | NZ$48.40/kg monofloral; NZ$25.92 multifloral | MPI export report High6 |
| Export value 2020 → 2024 | NZ$446 m → NZ$387 m | −13%; average price per kg NZ$47 → NZ$42 Med1 |
| UK bulk imports 2022 | 859 t | Largest bulk importer, +33% High6 |
Apiculture New Zealand's reading of the cycle: a bumper 2020 crop coincided with importers stockpiling against supply-chain uncertainty; when they stopped, demand fell back and the industry was left holding up to three years of sales in storage.7 Export value has fallen 13% from the 2020 peak while unit prices slid, and bulk prices have kept declining even as hive numbers dropped 42%, the classic signature of a stockpile being worked off rather than of a supply shortage.1 High
A wild shrub, a short flowering, and a hive count that halved.
Leptospermum scoparium flowers for a few weeks in late spring and early summer; hives are trucked into remote scrub, often on Māori-owned land, and the honey's MGO develops from dihydroxyacetone in the nectar as it matures. The economics therefore depend on land access, weather in a narrow window, and the number of hives an operator can place, and hive numbers have fallen 42% since 2019 as small beekeepers left the industry.1 Med
All honey, not mānuka alone; mānuka is c.76% of exported volume.7 2
Eight years, a lost case, and a precedent for every geographic name.
| Date | Event | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 onward | New Zealand producers seek to trademark "Manuka Honey" in New Zealand, the UK, EU, US and China | Opposed by the Australian Manuka Honey Association with support from a UK retail chain2 8 |
| 2020 | Mānuka Charitable Trust established; files replacement applications | Continues the appeals; disputes a NZ$1.7 m government loan obligation2 |
| 2023 | Intellectual Property Office of New Zealand rules against the application, "Manuka" descriptive, not distinctive | Not appealed; abandoned; costs order made3 8 |
| Result | Australian producers may sell "manuka" honey from the same plant; UMF™ remains a New Zealand-only trademark | The premium now rests on UMF and the MPI definition, not on the word3 4 |
The Australian position was that a New Zealand monopoly on a plant name would set a controversial international precedent; the New Zealand position was that the word is Māori and the product's authenticity is bound to its origin. Both are genuine industry positions rather than verdicts on quality, and the trademark question is separate from the MPI export definition.2 3 High
The premium invites the fraud.
| Risk | Evidence | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Inferior overseas honey passed off as mānuka | New Zealand research highlighting European "mānuka" in 20232 | MPI export definition; UMFHA licence verification2 4 |
| Grade inflation or fake UMF numbers | Multiple scales and voluntary bodies without enforcement1 | Cross-check the UMFHA licence number on the jar against the association's register4 |
| Adulteration with sugar syrups | A generic honey-trade problem; no mānuka-specific 2025–26 statistics found for this page | NMR and isotope testing; not asserted here Low |
The industry's own view is that export regulations and the UMF mark "provide a level of guarantee to an overseas consumer", a guarantee that stops at the New Zealand border, since neither the MPI test nor UMFHA has jurisdiction over honey blended or relabelled in the destination market.2 Med
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
| Indicator | Source & cadence | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Honey export volume, value and unit price by variety | MPI / Stats NZ, monthly and annual | Whether the stockpile has cleared and unit prices have stabilised |
| Registered hive numbers and harvest | MPI Apiculture Monitoring Programme, annual | Supply capacity after the exodus of small beekeepers |
| Storage estimates | Apiculture New Zealand statements | Overhang against c.10,000 t annual sales |
| UMFHA licensee count and grading changes | UMF Honey Association | Concentration and grading discipline |
| Australian mānuka output and labelling | Australian Manuka Honey Association | Trans-Tasman competition after the trademark loss |
| Import-market testing and enforcement | UK, EU, US and Chinese food authorities | Counterfeit rate outside New Zealand's jurisdiction |
Numbered in order of first citation. MPI and Apiculture New Zealand are primary; consultancy and retail guides are marked. Sources 9–11 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.