Oil oxidises and is sold within the campaign; no one holds it. A grove yields commercially from year five to seven, in super-high-density systems from year three, and for decades after. Listed producers add a third horizon: Deoleo, the largest bottler, was the object of a €470 m takeover contest in August 2026.14DerivedMed
Exit depth · groves and listed producers
RoutesOil: bulk sale to a bottler or cooperative at the weekly origin price (Poolred, Infaoliva in Jaén; ISMEA in Italy). Grove: sale of farmland with trees, in Andalusia an active market with institutional buyers. Equity: Deoleo (Madrid), a few Greek and Italian listings, Spanish cooperatives are unlisted.121314HighActivityPoolred recorded Spanish extra virgin at €3.20/kg for 3–9 October 2026 (Infaoliva €3.10 on 13 October), down about 20% in a year and less than half the 2024 peak; Spain's first 2026/27 estimate is 1.6 m t, Jaén alone 575,000 t. Italian stocks closed the campaign at 195,044 t, up 47%. Deoleo trades about €0.35 a share with a 52-week range of €0.18–0.50.121314ReportedHighCostOil: mill and bottler margins, quality downgrades (virgin and lampante trade €0.20–0.30/kg below extra virgin), and storage losses if held. Grove: agency and transfer costs; valuation on yield, water and planting system. Equity: brokerage and a thin order book.12MedTimeBulk oil sells in days at the weekly price; a grove takes months; listed shares exit the same day. The campaign calendar (harvest October–January) sets when sellers have oil to sell.1213DerivedHigh
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Since last update
Spanish 2026/27 crop estimates have been cut from up to 1.8 Mt to 1.4–1.5 Mt after a hot, dry summer (42–44°C in Andalusia). Spanish EVOO at origin averaged €4.65/kg on 28 Sep, up 18% in ten days, reversing the summer low near €3.40. October rain now decides the harvest.91011
Why Σ3
Bulk prices are published weekly but there is no futures market. The route is groves and listed producers, both of which carry operating and weather risk. Oil degrades and cannot be stored long.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 7 sections · 14 sources · open ↓close ↑
A Mediterranean staple that behaved like a luxury for two years: Spanish drought halved the world's largest crop, producer prices in Jaén trebled, consumption fell, then a record 2024/25 harvest cut prices by a third and the trade sold seventy per cent of the next crop in seven months. This page covers the crop-year balance, the price cycle at origin, the geography of supply, consumption's structural shift away from Europe, and the integrity layer. No prices are carried as live values.
3,572 kt
World production 2024/25, +38%, a record recovery Reported2
3,440 kt
World production 2025/26 estimate, c.−4% Estimate25
3,248 kt
World consumption 2025/26 estimate, +1.0% Estimate3
c.45%
EU share of world consumption, down from over 70% in 2004/05 Reported3
IThe crop-year balance
International Olive Council figures; crop years run October to September.
Second consecutive drought year; consumption −3% High12
2024/25
3,572
+38%
3,215
Record recovery; consumption +15.3% as prices fell High23
2025/26 (est.)
3,440
c.−4%
3,248
Above expected demand and the five-year average; EU c.2,055 kt (60%) Med258
Discrepancy logged: the IOC's 2023/24 production figure was revised from 2,564 kt (December 2024) to 2,589 kt (December 2025), and its 2025/26 estimate appears both as 3,440 kt (olive oil) and as "2,986 kt, −10%", the latter is the table-olive figure, not oil, and is easily confused in secondary reporting. World consumption for 2025/26 is 3,248 kt in the IOC's February 2026 note and 3,069 kt in a European Commission-based compilation. The IOC figures are used throughout.1238High
Global olive oil production has tripled over sixty years, and consumption has nearly doubled since 1990/91, driven by non-IOC and non-EU markets while EU consumption has declined since 2004/05. The 2023/24 price shock is suspected of having caused lasting substitution to other oils in some markets.237Med
IIPrice at origin
Jaén, Bari and Chania producer prices as dated observations.
The Italian premium over Spain, Bari at roughly 1.6–1.7 times Jaén through the cycle, is the market's persistent structural feature: Italy consumes more than it produces, and its brands blend imported Spanish and Tunisian oil under Italian labels. Spanish small-farmer body UPA called the record 2024/25 campaign "disappointing" because some buyers pushed origin prices below what growers considered fair even as exports rose 38%.6Med
Diamond parallel: the 2023–25 cycle is a pure inventory story. With Spanish stocks 70,000 t below the long-term average at the end of September 2025, and 880,000 t, nearly 70% of the 2025/26 crop, sold within seven months, the trade has no buffer if the 2026/27 flowering fertility decline of c.37% reported by OliveA is borne out. Scarcity pricing returns the moment a single origin fails.64Hyp
IIIGeography of supply
Spain is the swing producer; Tunisia is the growth origin.
Spain
1,370 kt (2025/26e)
Italy
300 kt (+21%)
Tunisia
400–500 kt (2024/25)
Greece
220–250 kt
Portugal
150 kt (−15%)
Türkiye
variable; +53% table olives
2025/26 estimates from the European Commission and IOC via Infoodspro; Tunisia from Certified Origins; Greece 220 kt (Infoodspro) versus c.250 kt (Artisan Olive Oil Co.), both provisional.867Med
+32%; exports 1,025,000 t (+38%); domestic 501,000 t (+22%) High6
Closing stocks
290,220 t
70,000 t below the long-term average; 56% above 2023/24 close High6
Stocks, end Dec 2025
715,735 t
c.24% below December 2024 (893,000 t); 550,895 t in mills, 160,610 t with bottlers High5
Tunisia, with c.300,000 mostly small family producers, produced an estimated 400–500 kt in 2024/25 and faces a 25% US country tariff introduced in 2025; EU olive oil into the US faces up to 15% under the US–EU framework, and the US remains structurally import-dependent because Californian output cannot meet demand.65High
IVThe consumption shift
Europe drinks less of its own oil; the growth is in the producing countries of the south and east.
70% → 45%
EU share of world olive-oil consumption, 2004/05 to recent years High3
11 → 540 kt
Egypt's table-olive consumption, 1990/91 to 2024/25 High3
+15.3%
World olive-oil consumption 2024/25 as prices eased, 426,500 t more High3
Consumption growth has come from non-IOC members and from IOC members outside the EU, Türkiye's table-olive consumption rose from 110 kt to 395 kt and Algeria's from 14 kt to 267.5 kt over the same period, while EU consumption has trended down for two decades.3 The EU still supplies roughly 60% of world production and exports c.787 kt to third countries, so the industry's centre of production and its centre of consumption are diverging.8High
VGrades and integrity
A product defined by chemistry and taste panels, and one of the most adulterated foods in trade.
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Grade (IOC standard)
Definition
Market role
Extra virgin
Mechanical extraction only; free acidity ≤0.8%; no sensory defects on panel
The reference grade for every producer-price series above
Virgin
Acidity ≤2%; minor defects permitted
Mid-tier
Lampante
Not fit for consumption unrefined
Refined into "olive oil" blends
Refined / "olive oil" / pomace
Chemically or physically refined; solvent-extracted pomace oil
Volume and food-service tiers
Grade definitions summarised from the IOC trade standard; thresholds should be read from the standard itself for compliance use. Med
The fraud pattern is structural: the price gap between extra virgin and lower grades, the ease of blending, and the dependence on sensory panels create a persistent incentive to mislabel, particularly in the 2023–24 spike, when the gap widened. No verified 2025–26 enforcement statistics were found for this page; none are asserted, and the topic is carried in the indicators. Med
Diamond parallel: "Italian" olive oil is to Spanish and Tunisian bulk what a "Belgian-cut" stone once was to African rough, the label describes where value was added, not where the product came from. The country-of-origin rules that finally forced blend disclosure on EU labels are the equivalent of mine-of-origin certification. Hyp
VIIndicators to monitor
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
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Indicator
Source & cadence
What it tells you
World production, consumption and trade by crop year
International Olive Council newsletter, monthly; forecasts in autumn
The balance and its revisions
Spanish production, sales and stocks
AICA (Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios), monthly
The swing producer's inventory position
Producer prices in Jaén, Bari, Chania
IOC via national exchanges (Poolred, Ismea), weekly
Origin price and the Italian premium; not carried here
Flowering, fruit set and AFORO forecasts
Spanish regional governments, May–October
Next-crop risk
Tunisian output and export licences
Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture; ONH
Growth origin and US tariff exposure
US tariffs on EU and Tunisian oil
USTR; US–EU framework notices
Landed cost in the largest import market
Fraud enforcement
EU Food Fraud Network annual report; national agencies
Integrity risk in the extra-virgin tier
VIISources
Numbered in order of first citation. The International Olive Council is the primary source; trade-house market reports are marked Med. Sources 12–14 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.
Show 14 sources
International Olive Council, "World Market of Olive Oil and Table Olives, Data From December 2024", Jan 2025, 2023/24 production 2,564 kt (−7%), consumption 2,780 kt (−3%), imports 1,015 kt; Spain 854 kt, Italy 328.5 kt, Portugal 160.9 kt; Jaén €530 (−28.9%), Bari €915 (+1.7%).
International Olive Council, "Olive sector statistics, December 2025 and forecasts", Jan 2026, 2024/25 production 3,572 kt (+38%, +983 kt); 2023/24 revised 2,589 kt; 2025/26 estimate 3,440 kt; table olives 2,986 kt (−10%); Jaén €433, Bari €665, Chania €465; production tripled in sixty years.
International Olive Council, "Olive sector statistics, January/February 2026", Feb 2026, consumption 3,215 kt (2024/25, +15.3%) and 3,248 kt (2025/26e, +1.0%); EU share 70% to c.45%; Egypt, Algeria, Türkiye table-olive consumption; Jaén €407 (−2.5%), Bari €650 (−30.9%).
Tridge, "Olive Oil Prices Dropped. The Risk Hasn't.", 26 May 2026, EVOO −32% from 2024 peak of c.$11.19/kg; OliveA: 880,000 t (c.70% of 2025/26) sold in seven months; c.37% decline in flowering fertility for 2026/27. Data vendor. Med
Certified Origins, "Olive Oil Market Report, January 2026", 2025/26 c.3.44 Mt (−4%); EU c.2,055 kt (USDA); Spanish cumulative production 716,372 t and stocks 715,735 t (mills 550,895 t, bottlers 160,610 t, PCO 4,230 t) at end-December; 24% below December 2024; US tariffs (EU up to 15%, Tunisia 25%). Trade house. Med
Certified Origins, "Olive Oil Market Report, September 2025", Spain 1,419,128 t (+66%); sales 1,526,100 t (+32%); exports 1,025,000 t (+38%); domestic 501,000 t; stocks 290,220 t; UPA "disappointing"; Tunisia 400–500 kt and c.300,000 producers. Trade house. Med
Artisan Olive Oil Company, "2025/2026 Olive Oil Harvest Forecast", 12 Nov 2025, Greece c.250 kt; Italy possibly c.300 kt; substitution risk after 2023/24 prices. Retailer. Med
Infoodspro, "Olive Oil 25/26", 18 Dec 2025, European Commission/IOC: 3.44 Mt world; EU 2.06 Mt (−2.6%, 60%); Spain 1.37 Mt (−3.3%); Italy 300 kt (+21%); Greece 220 kt (−12%); Portugal 150 kt (−15%); EU opening stocks 372 kt; consumption 3.069 Mt; EU exports 787 kt.
Greek City Times, "Greek Olive Oil Prices Fall as 2026 Harvest Begins", 21 Sep 2026. Spain estimate cut to 1.4–1.5 Mt; Spanish costs €1.70–2/kg. greekcitytimes.comMed
Oleista, "Olive oil price at origin today", 28 Sep 2026. Spain EVOO €4.65/kg average, +18% in ten days; virgin €3.31; lampante €3.16. oleista.comMed
Mediterrolio, "Olive Oil Prices 2026", Aug 2026. Spain cycle low €3.40/kg; €3.45/kg on 6 Aug. mediterrolio.comLow
Wikifarmer, "Olive oil prices and Italy's season-end stocks", 15 Oct 2026: Poolred (COAG Jaén) 3–9 Oct extra virgin €3.20/kg, virgin €3.01, lampante €2.93; Infaoliva 13 Oct €3.10 extra virgin; Italian stocks 195,044 t, +46.7% y/y. wikifarmer.comHigh
Wikifarmer, "Olive oil 2026/27 outlook for crops and prices", Sep 2026: Spain first aforo 1.6 m t; Jaén 575,000 t; AICA 2025/26 production 1,301,761 t; Jaén producer price €378.5/100 kg mid-June per IOC. Also Olive Private Label Studio tracker: €3.39/kg late September, −20% y/y. wikifarmer.comHigh
CNBC, "Spain's Deoleo shares surge as olive oil maker draws takeover interest", 19 Aug 2026: Dcoop offer reported at €470 m; shares +20% to a 52-week high; Italian, French and Australian bidders. Yahoo Finance OLE.MC: €0.352, 52-week range €0.1765–0.498, Oct 2026. cnbc.comHigh