ΣΟΦΙΑ
Markets · Crops

Tea

Σ3Specialist
Route: listed plantation companies · 5 Oct 2026
Price regimeAs of 5 Oct 2026

Bulk auction grades flat while the matcha and Uji tencha tier runs short; a two-speed market.14High

Origins
China · India · Kenya · Sri Lanka · Japan
Principal markets
China · India · Europe · Pakistan · United States
Structure
Supply concentrationHighLiquidityMediumScarcityLow; Uji tencha HighProvenance riskMedium
Holding horizon
Equity · bushes 5 yrs to tencha
The route is listed plantation companies, so the horizon is an equity holding. The scarce tier cannot be held: tencha is auctioned in May and milled within months, and a new field needs about five years before its leaf is matcha-grade, which is why the 2024–26 price tripling has no quick supply answer.16 17DerivedMed
Exit depth · listed plantation companies
RoutesShares in listed tea groups (Ito En in Tokyo; Indian and Kenyan plantation companies for bulk grades) through any broker. Leaf itself exits only through the prefectural auctions (Kyoto, Kagoshima) or the Mombasa and Kolkata bulk auctions, both trade-only.16 18High ActivityKyoto first-flush tencha averaged ¥17,797/kg to 19 June 2026 against ¥14,144 in 2025 and ¥5,402 in 2024, even with a 21% larger first flush; the Kyoto opening auction on 13 May 2026 printed ¥13,972/kg, 1.7× the 2025 record, and Kagoshima ¥19,095. Bulk CTC at Mombasa and Kolkata trades in the low single dollars a kilo.16 17 18ReportedHigh CostEquity: brokerage and spread. Leaf: auction commission and the grower's share of handling; for buyers abroad, Uji ceremonial wholesale runs US$200–500/kg at 10–25 kg minimums, with everything below about US$100 a counterfeit signal.18Med TimeShares exit the same day. Tencha is sold at a dated spring auction and allocated for the year; heritage makers have moved to allocation-only sales, so a buyer outside the trade waits a season or pays the dealer tier.18DerivedMed

Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.

Since last update

Kyoto’s Uji tea market closed its 2026 season on 31 July with machine-harvested tencha averaging a record ¥17,250/kg, highest since records began in 1996 and above the ¥13,972 opening. Fields shifted to tencha pushed sencha, gyokuro and bancha prices up ~30% to more than double: the matcha squeeze has become a wider Japanese tea squeeze.1415

Why Σ3

No exchange benchmark exists for premium tea; the route is listed plantation companies, which carry broad operating exposure. Auction prices cover bulk grades only. The scarce tier, Uji tencha, cannot be held directly.

The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →

Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 6 sections · 18 sources · open ↓close ↑

The world's most consumed manufactured drink after water: seven million tonnes a year, more than half of it Chinese, priced at commodity auctions in Mombasa and Kolkata, and, at the top, a Japanese shade-grown powder whose producer price rose 2.6-fold in a single year. This page covers the overview: production and its concentration, the auction system, the export trade, and the matcha shortage as the clearest case of a luxury tier decoupling from its commodity base. No prices are carried as live values.

7.05 m t
World production 2024; China 3.74 m t, India 1.28 m t, 78% together Reported1
1.94 m t
Exports 2024 (preliminary ITC), 27.6% of the crop Reported1
13 m
People whose living depends on tea, per FAO Reported4

IProduction and concentration

Output has nearly doubled in twenty years, and the doubling is almost all China.

China
3.74 m t · 53%
India
1.28 m t · 18%
Kenya
c.0.60 m t · 8.5%
Türkiye
4th
Sri Lanka
5th · 256 kt (2022)
Japan
74 kt

2024 data; Kenya's tonnage is derived from its 8.5% share, and the Sri Lankan figure is FAO 2022. Derived1 2 3

Metric20062024Note
World production3.66 m t7.05 m t+6.8% in 2024 alone (from 6.6 m t); China +12% High1 2
China + India share58%78%Concentration has intensified as China expands every year High1
Countries producing >100 kt87Japan has dropped out; Vietnam and Indonesia remain High1
India,−6.1%Assam shortened season and reduced yields in 2024 High2
Bangladesh / Argentina,−9.6% / +19.1%Civil unrest; recovery of a US black-tea supplier Med2
Discrepancy logged: FAO's finalised world figure for 2023 is given as 6.604 m t by one compiler and 6.7 m t by another; the 2024 estimates of 7.05 m t (Tea & Coffee Trade Journal) and 7.1 m t (Firsd Tea) agree within rounding. China's share is "over 50%" (FAO-based), 53% (Firsd) and "over 60%" is not supported by any institutional source.1 2 3 4 Med

IICategories and where value sits

One plant, six processing routes, three orders of magnitude in price.

CategoryProcessingBenchmark originsMarket position
Black (CTC and orthodox)Full oxidation; CTC (cut-tear-curl) for teabags, orthodox whole leafKenya, Assam, Sri Lanka, TürkiyeBulk of exports; auction-priced; Mombasa handles >500 kt a year5
GreenUnoxidised; steamed (Japan) or pan-fired (China)China (Longjing), Japan (Sencha), Vietnam20% of exports; China 309 kt and Vietnam 61 kt of 386 kt in 20231
OolongPartial oxidationFujian, TaiwanPremium Chinese domestic and diaspora markets
Dark / post-fermented (Pu-erh)Microbial ageing; compressed bricks and cakesYunnanPromoted for health and ageing; a driver of Chinese domestic consumption growth per FAO3
Matcha (tencha ground)Shade-grown, steamed, de-stemmed, stone-milledUji (Kyoto), Nishio (Aichi), Kagoshima, ShizuokaThe luxury tier; see Section IV6
WhiteMinimal processingFujianNiche

Kyoto producer prices in 2025 illustrate the spread inside a single prefecture: tencha for matcha averaged ¥14,141/kg against ¥8,447 for Gyokuro, ¥4,482 for Sencha and ¥1,225 for Bancha, a factor of more than eleven from the bottom grade to the top.7 High The world's tea market was valued at c.US$25.6 bn in 2024 by one research house; the figure is unverified and shown for orientation only.4 Low

IIITrade and the auction system

Exporters need the world; the world's largest producer barely exports.

FlowVolumeNote
World exports 20241.94 m tKenya, China, India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam the top five High1
Kenya exports 2024594.5 ktKSh 181 bn (c.US$1.35 bn); largest exporter High4
Sri Lanka exports 2024,US$1.45 bn; c.1 m people employed; tea on c.4% of land area High4
Top importers 2023,Pakistan 236 kt; Russia 129 kt; USA 104 kt; Egypt 100 kt; UK 84 kt; Morocco 62 kt High1
Japan green-tea exports FY202513,125 t+42% by volume; value roughly doubled to ¥84.7 bn; Japanese imports of foreign green tea +82% to backfill shelves Med8

The auction floor

Black tea is priced at producer-country auctions, Mombasa (the world's largest, over 500 kt a year), Kolkata, Guwahati, Colombo, where brokers sell graded lots to blenders and packers. In 2024 the International Tea Committee reported Mombasa heavily glutted with unsold, "unfresh" teas passing auction after auction, while African import markets (Egypt −16%, Morocco −27%) contracted; producing countries have responded by promoting domestic consumption to rebalance supply and demand.5 High The FAO expects Kenya to keep its export leadership over the decade and India to overtake Sri Lanka as the second black-tea exporter.3

Diamond parallel: the Mombasa auction is a rough tender for a perishable, graded lots, sealed bids, a handful of large buyers, and a producer base of smallholders who take the price they are given. The unsold-lot problem of 2024 is the same signal as unsold sight boxes: the intermediary has stopped absorbing inventory. Hyp

IVThe matcha shortage

A luxury tier decoupling from its commodity base, in real time.

+169%
Kyoto first-harvest tencha auction average, ¥5,402/kg (2024) → ¥14,541/kg (2025), per Global Japanese Tea Association Med9
¥43,330 /kg
Premium Uji tencha auction price 2025, +116%; peak lots +265% Med9
4–5 years
For new tea plants to reach tencha production, no supply response before c.2030 High6 10
2000–20
Japan loses 53,000 tea farmers to retirement; production falls to 74,000 t by 2024.6 1
2024
Record heat during the spring shading window damages Uji tencha quality and volume; the highest grades lose c.40% of yield across 2024–25.6 11
Late 2024
Social-media-driven global demand meets depleted reserves; the Global Japanese Tea Association calls it the first matcha shortage in history.10
May 2025
Kyoto opening tencha auction average ¥8,235/kg, 1.7× the prior year and above the 2016 record; Kyoto-region volume reported down c.25%.10 9
2025
Kyoto producer price for tencha averages ¥14,141/kg, 2.6× the previous year; a 15% US tariff on Japanese imports adds to café costs; wait times stretch to six months; scalpers and relabelled lower grades appear; tins rationed to one per customer in Tokyo.7 12 10
2026
First-flush auctions confirm the squeeze: Kyoto tencha from ¥8,235 to c.¥13,972/kg, national aggregate c.¥14,541, Kagoshima c.¥19,000; a Shizuoka top lot at ¥1.18 m/kg; Kagoshima's opening auction the highest since 1989. Uji reports one of its strongest harvests in decades, and prices do not fall.8 13

The supply response is a conversion, not a planting: Shizuoka's Ashikubo cooperative switched a sencha line to tencha in late 2025 for ¥200 m after tencha sold for c.¥3,800/kg against c.¥300 for its sencha, more than ten times.8 Ippodo expects more capacity to shift to matcha in 2026, which will tighten sencha and bancha in turn.7 Kagoshima has become the B2B standard for high-quality, cost-efficient matcha, while Uji remains the prestige tier; direct exporters undercut traditional distributors materially.11 Med

Discrepancy logged: the 2025 Kyoto first-harvest average is ¥14,541/kg in GJTA reporting and ¥14,141/kg in Ippodo's JA Kyoto figure; the 2025 opening average is ¥8,235. These are different aggregates (season average, producer price, opening auction) and are shown with their labels rather than reconciled. All are dated observations, not current prices.9 7 10 Med
Integrity note: the 2024–25 squeeze drew counterfeit Uji-origin labels, sencha powder sold as matcha, and aged stock relabelled as current harvest; genuine stone-milled ceremonial tencha cannot be produced profitably below roughly US$30/kg, so offers below that are either Chinese-origin or not tencha.11 Med, a trade source with an interest; the price floor is its claim.

VIndicators to monitor

Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.

IndicatorSource & cadenceWhat it tells you
World production and tradeFAO Intergovernmental Group on Tea; International Tea Committee annual bulletinConcentration; export share of crop
Mombasa and Kolkata auction averages and unsold percentagesEast African Tea Trade Association; Tea Board of India, weeklyCommodity-tier health; glut signals
Kyoto, Shizuoka and Kagoshima tencha auctionsJA Kyoto / JA Zen-Noh; Global Japanese Tea Association, May–AugustThe luxury tier; whether 2025 levels hold
Japanese green-tea exports and importsMinistry of Finance trade statistics, monthlyExport pull and domestic backfill
Tencha line conversions and plantingsMAFF; prefectural cooperativesSupply response with a five-year lag
US tariff on Japanese goodsUSTRLanded cost in the largest matcha export market

VISources

Numbered in order of first citation. Trade-journal compilations of FAO and ITC data are primary for the commodity tier; Japanese tea merchants and associations for matcha, marked Med where they are interested parties. Sources 16–18 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.

Show 18 sources
  1. Tea & Coffee Trade Journal, "The 2025 Global Tea Report", 22 May 2025, 2024 production 7.05 m t; China 3.74 m t, India 1.28 m t, 78%; 2006 comparison (3.66 m t, 58%); seven countries above 100 kt; Japan 74 kt; ITC exports 1.94 m t (27.6%); top importers 2023; green-tea exports 385,760 t.
  2. Firsd Tea, "2025 China Tea Report: Production", 14 Jul 2025, world +6.8% from 6.6 to 7.1 m t; China 53%, +12%; India 18.2%, −6.1%; Kenya 8.5%; Türkiye fourth; Bangladesh −9.6%; Argentina +19.1%.
  3. FAO, Intergovernmental Group on Tea, CCP:TE/24/2, Jan 2024, India 1.37 m t (2022); Kenya 542,561 t and Sri Lanka 255,973 t (2022); Pu-erh and domestic consumption; decade outlook for exporters.
  4. DevelopmentAid, "World's largest tea-producing countries", 27 Jun 2025, China over 50% in 2024; Kenya exports 594,500 t, KSh 181 bn (US$1.35 bn); Sri Lanka exports US$1.45 bn, c.1 m employed, c.4% of land; FAO 13 m livelihoods; US$25.6 bn market estimate (Research and Markets). Med
  5. Tea & Coffee Trade Journal, "The Global Tea Report 2024", 16 May 2024, Mombasa over 500 kt a year, glutted with unsold teas; African import declines; domestic-consumption promotion.
  6. One with Tea, "The 2026 Matcha Shortage Explained", Apr 2026, 2024 heatwaves; 53,000 farmers lost 2000–2020; 4–5 year plant maturity; regional concentration; 2026 auction figures. Merchant. Med
  7. Ippodo Tea, "Important Notice: Industry Supply Shortages", 19 Feb 2026, Kyoto producer prices 2025 by category (¥14,141 tencha, ¥8,447 Gyokuro, ¥4,482 Sencha, ¥1,225 Bancha); 2.6× rise; expected capacity shift. Merchant. Med
  8. Genie Super, "Japan's 2026 Matcha Shortage: Will Prices Keep Rising?", 31 Jul 2026, 2026 auction range; Shizuoka ¥1.18 m/kg lot; Kagoshima highest since 1989; FY2025 exports 13,125 t (+42%), ¥84.7 bn, imports +82% (Japan Times / MoF); Ashikubo conversion. Med
  9. One with Tea, "Matcha Industry 2026: Record Auctions & the Shortage", 10 Aug 2026, ¥5,402 → ¥14,541/kg (+169%) per GJTA; premium Uji ¥43,330 (+116%), peaks +265%; Kyoto volume c.−25% (trade-reported). Med
  10. Maison Koko, "Matcha Shortage 2026", 24 Jun 2026, GJTA "first shortage in history"; May 2025 opening ¥8,235/kg, 1.7×, above 2016 record; five-year lag; Kyoto c.a quarter of tencha; one-tin limits in Tokyo. Med
  11. First Agri B2B, "Matcha Wholesale Pricing 2026", Sep 2026, 40% yield decline in top Uji grades 2024–25; Kagoshima as B2B standard; direct-export pricing; counterfeit and relabelling patterns; US$30/kg floor claim. Exporter. Med
  12. Supply Chain Dive, "A matcha shortage is coming for social media's latest obsession", 3 Oct 2025, Kyoto tencha trading prices +265% 2024–25 (ITC citing JA Kyoto); 15% US tariff; six-month waits; scalpers.
  13. Vision Times, "Japan's Matcha Crisis", 12 Feb 2026, 170% price surge in 2025; rationing by established gardens. Med
  14. One With Tea, "The 2026 Matcha Shortage Explained", 29 Sep 2026. Uji season average ¥17,250/kg (GJTA, via Yomiuri); opening ¥13,972; Kagoshima top lot ~¥19,000. Retailer commentary citing GJTA. onewithtea.com Med
  15. First Agri, "Matcha Wholesale Price per kg: 2026 Guide", Sep 2026. 2026 first flush hand-picked Uji volume +18.5%, prices +11% (hand-picked) and +22% (machine-picked). first-agri.jp Med
  16. Meguri Group, "Is There a Matcha Shortage?", Oct 2026: Kyoto market first-flush tencha average ¥17,797/kg in 2026 (to 19 June), ¥14,144 in 2025, ¥5,402 in 2024; 2026 first flush 21% larger; table 2022–26. meguri-group.co.jp Med
  17. Rikyu Matcha / Japanomars, "Why US Cafés Are Asking for Price Lists in 2026": Kyoto opening auction 13 May 2026 averaged ¥13,972/kg, 1.7× the 2025 record of ¥8,235; Japanomars index, 5 Oct 2026: Kagoshima prefectural sale ¥19,095/kg (organic ¥20,422; top lot ¥47,100), JA Zen-Noh Kyoto ¥14,127; second flush roughly half. rikyumatcha.co.jp Med
  18. First Agri, "Uji Matcha Wholesale 2026: Sourcing, Pricing & Verification After the Kyoto Shortage", Apr 2026: Uji first-flush tencha peaked ¥43,330/kg in 2025 (+265%); production −40% 2024–25; heritage makers allocation-only; 2026 Uji ceremonial US$250–500/kg at 10–25 kg MOQ; below US$100 a counterfeit signal. Trade source (also source 11/15 family on this page). first-agri.jp Med
IProduction and concentrationIICategories and where value sitsIIITrade and the auction systemIVThe matcha shortageVIndicators to monitorVISources
Related markets
Pu-erh TeaAged collector teaCoffeeAuction-priced cropMānuka HoneyPremium origin
All markets →
Themes that cover this market
Provenance and verificationClimate and supply shockSanctions, tariffs and originStorage, custody and insuranceTax and legal wrappersFractional and fund accessExit depth: who buys when you sellAuction or dealerWho sets the price
Build a printable report from this brief →Choose the sections, keep the sources, save as PDF.