Demand has turned before supply: Q3 grindings rose in Europe and Asia, the two largest regions, for the first time since 2024, while El Niño and a smaller Ivorian crop loom. Futures hold near $5,600, double the April low.12High
Five delivery months a year (March, May, July, September, December); a position is rolled into the next one or delivered. Index funds roll on a fixed calendar, so the roll, not the crop, sets the return on any hold beyond one contract.21DerivedHigh
Exit depth · futures
RoutesClose or roll ICE New York (US$/t) or ICE London (£/t) futures and options; a handful of ETFs and ETCs. Physical beans are deliverable only through exchange-licensed warehouses, a trade-house business.2122HighActivityNew York December cocoa traded 25,904 lots on 8 September 2026 and around 17,000–20,000 lots on ordinary days; each lot is 10 t. ICE-certified stocks were 3.41 m bags on 1 September, a two-year high.23ReportedMedCostExchange and clearing fees per lot, broker commission and margin; initial margin on the New York contract was about $9,500 a lot in October 2026, a fifth of contract value. The roll is paid each delivery month.24MedTimeExit at the next trade during exchange hours; the position is marked and cleared the same day.DerivedHigh
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Since last update
Q3 grindings (15 Oct): Europe +3.2%, the first year-on-year gain in any quarter since 2024; Asia +29% to a record 233,767 t; Ivorian exporters +40%.1213 New York December closed $5,645 on 16 Oct, −4% on the year but 98% above the April low; ICE certified stocks at a 2.25-year high of 3.54 m bags cap rallies.1118 Ghana opened its season on 25 Sep at 42,400 cedis/t (~$3.65/kg), 75% above Ivory Coast's 1,200 CFA, breaking the June harmonisation pledge, and sold its first cocoa bills since default at 11%.1517
Why Σ2
ICE London and New York futures give continuous pricing and liquid exit. Marketing boards in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana set farm-gate prices and forward-sell the crop, which shapes the futures curve. Roll costs and extreme volatility are the limits.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
Valuation
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Full report 7 sections · 24 sources · open ↓close ↑
A crop grown by millions of West African smallholders and priced in New York and London, which quadrupled to a record in December 2024, fell almost 80% into March 2026, then rose 70% in a month on floods. This page covers the balance, the disruption history, the two-country duopoly and its regulated farmgate, the demand destruction inside chocolate, and the policy layer. No prices are carried as live values.
287 kt (Radad); 400–500 kt (Lipsa, March 2026); c.422 kt (StoneX, July 2026) Med756
2026/27 (StoneX, 29 Jul 2026)
,
,
+25
Cut 83% from its April estimate of 149 kt on El Niño and West African crop prospects Med6
2026/27 crop surveys
Côte d'Ivoire c.1.8; Ghana 0.65
,
,
Ivorian early surveys average 1.8 Mt, −18% from c.2.2 Mt, on poor cherelle formation; COCOBOD field survey 650 kt, −13% from 750 kt delivered, earlier range 450–550 kt. NOAA CPC: the El Niño that emerged in September is likely among the strongest in 75 years Med2018
Discrepancy logged: the 2024/25 surplus has been published as 142 kt, 49 kt, c.60 kt (ING) and 75 kt by successive ICCO bulletins and bank analysts; production as 4.84, 4.69, 4.728 and 4.723 Mt. This dashboard uses the February 2026 ICCO figures as the reference and shows the others to make the point that cocoa balances are revised by hundreds of thousands of tonnes within a season.8214High
IIPrice history
Dated observations of the New York contract; no current value is carried.
2018–22
London cocoa averages c.GBP 1,749/t, the pre-crisis baseline.4
2023–24
Drought, irregular rain, swollen-shoot disease and black pod in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana; consecutive deficits; a persistent climate risk premium enters the price.2
19 Dec 2024
Record near $12,487/t, a quadrupling from the baseline in under two years.3
21 Apr 2025
c.$8,399/t as harvests improve and demand softens.3
Nov 2025
1.75-year lows on bumper-crop expectations; Mondelez reports West African pod counts 7% above the five-year average; funds hold their largest net short in London in four years; Ivorian port arrivals 618,899 t to 23 Nov, −3.7%.8
2 Mar 2026
Low near $2,863/t, c.77% below the peak, on surplus reports; March contract c.$3,230/t against 2024 highs above $10,000.35
12 Jun – 9 Jul 2026
Floods across Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana; price rises from c.$3,781 to c.$6,520, more than 70% in under a month, before easing to c.$5,703 on 13 July.3
1 Sep 2026
Recovery high c.$6,569, the highest since the December 2024 record; 52-week high $6,821.1911
16 Oct 2026
December New York closes $5,645 (−3.2% on the day) after a $5,051–6,023 month; −4.2% on the year, +98% from the April low. Q3 grindings beat in Europe and Asia; Cargill reports mark-to-market losses on cocoa; ICE stocks at a 2.25-year high.111218
Discrepancy logged: the 2026 cycle low is given as c.$2,863 on 2 March (source 3) and $2,846 in April (sources 11, 19; the 52-week low on Investing.com is 2,846). Front-month and continuous series differ; both are within 1%. The April figure is used for percent-from-low calculations on this page. Med
The market's two regimes since 2023 are both weather: a deficit regime in which a small West African shortfall swings the global balance, and a surplus regime in which demand destruction from the spike lingers even as supply returns. Analysts were divided on the July 2026 rally, material tightening versus over-weighting of short-term weather while ICE inventories were rising.3Med
IIIThe duopoly and the farmgate
Two countries, two marketing boards, one exchange price.
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Country
Output
2025–27 developments
Côte d'Ivoire
c.2.2 Mt (2025/26, arrivals 2.09 Mt to 12 Jul, +21%); c.1.8 Mt surveyed for 2026/27
Unsold stocks at ports from November 2025; strategic buyback launched 29 Jan 2026; 2026/27 main crop opened 1 Sep at 1,200 CFA/kg (~$2.07–2.12), held because >1.1 Mt was forward-sold at spring prices; heavy October rain cut roads and bridges, slowing port deliveries42091018
Season opened 25 Sep at 42,400 cedis/t (~$3.65/kg, 71.18% of FOB under the 2026 Cocoa Board Act's 70% floor), +2.4% and c.75% above Ivory Coast, so the June harmonisation pledge is unmet and smuggling flows reverse direction; COCOBOD owes licensed buyers c.GHS 4bn and has replaced the offshore syndicated loan with a 16.3bn-cedi domestic bill programme, first tranche 3.39bn at 11% on 8 Oct14151617
The two boards have now priced in opposite directions against the same exchange: Abidjan under the world price because it sold forward at the bottom, Accra above its neighbour because its new law indexes farmers to 70% of realised FOB. Beans will walk east. DerivedMed
Both states set an annual farmgate price in advance and sell forward. When the exchange price collapsed in 2025–26 the regulated farmgate sat above the world price, traders stopped buying, and beans accumulated at Abidjan, San Pedro and Tema, a pricing mismatch that turned a surplus into a procurement crisis for the two governments.16 In the boom the reverse held: farmgate prices rose only c.20% in 2024/25 while the world price quadrupled, and the margin accrued to traders and boards, not growers.7High
Diamond parallel: a fixed producer price set by a state marketing board against a volatile exchange is the Cocobod version of the benefício in Port or the sight price at De Beers, it protects the grower on the way down only until the board runs out of buyers, and it never passes the upside through. Latin American origins, which sell at the exchange price, gained share in the 2026 surplus.5Hyp
IVDemand destruction
The spike did to chocolate what it did to jewellery. Q3 2026 is the first quarter since 2024 in which Europe and Asia both grew; the North American print is not yet verified here.
European grindings Q3 2026, the first year-on-year rise in any quarter since 2024; year-to-date still 990 kt, lowest since 2015 High1213
+29.2%
Asian grindings Q3 2026 to a record 233,767 t, second consecutive quarter above +25%; Q3 2025 had been −17% High1312
Manufacturers reformulated recipes, shrank portions and raised prices; the behavioural shifts proved stickier than expected, which is why the surplus arrived into a smaller market.6 The 2026 recovery is base effects and geography as much as appetite: Asia and origin grinding (Ivorian exporters +40% in Q3) are taking share from Europe, whose decade-long decline continues even as its quarter turned positive; North America rose 7.7% in Q2 on a changed reporting panel.1320Med ICE cocoa inventories in US ports fell to an 8.5-month low of 1.7 m bags in November 2025, then rose to a 2.25-year high of 3.54 m bags by October 2026 as unsold beans were delivered against the exchange; Cargill reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter to 31 August.818 Chocolate and confectionery remain the dominant end-use, followed by bakery, beverages, dairy, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.1High
VPolicy and provenance
Deforestation rules, living-income differentials and the traceability problem.
Decouples grower income from the exchange in both directions High1
Ivorian strategic buyback
Launched 29 Jan 2026
State absorbs unsold beans to defend the farmgate Med6
EU Deforestation Regulation (cocoa in scope)
Producers "working toward compliance"; implementation timing not verified for this page
Plot-level geolocation for every EU consignment Low7
Weather and El Niño
NOAA signal strengthening, July 2026
Drove StoneX's 83% cut to its 2026/27 surplus Med6
Child labour in West African cocoa and the traceability of beans from unregistered farms remain the provenance issues the industry has not solved; they sit behind both EUDR and the living-income premiums the two boards have negotiated with buyers. No verified 2025–26 figures on either were found for this page, and none are asserted. Med
VIIndicators to monitor
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
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Indicator
Source & cadence
What it tells you
World balance, production, grindings, stocks
ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (Feb, May, Aug, Nov)
The balance and its revisions
Ivorian port arrivals
Government data, weekly from October
Real-time read on the main crop
Farmgate price announcements
CCC (1 Sep) and COCOBOD (late Sep), with mid-season changes
Grower income; cross-border flows when the two prices diverge (75% gap in 2026/27)
Regional grindings
ECA, NCA, CAA quarterly (next 21 Jan 2027)
Demand recovery or continued destruction; Q3 2026 positive in Europe and Asia
COCOBOD financing
Cocoa-bill auctions; LBC arrears
Whether Ghana can fund purchases at its own farmgate
ICE certified stocks and fund positioning
ICE daily; CFTC Commitment of Traders weekly
Exchange tightness; short-covering risk
Weather and disease
NOAA ENSO; pod counts (Mondelez and traders); swollen-shoot surveys
Next-season supply
EUDR implementation
European Commission
Compliance cost and market access for smallholders
VIISources
Numbered in order of first citation. ICCO figures are primary, reported through market commentary; price observations are dated. Sources 21–24 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.
Show 24 sources
Procurement Resource, "Cocoa Price Trend July 2026", Sep 2026, ICCO 2024/25 grindings 4.606 Mt (−4.2%); May 2026 bulletin production 4.723 Mt and grindings 4.628 Mt; Ghana farmer price cut c.29%; unsold Ivorian stocks; Côte d'Ivoire 2.0–2.1 Mt projection and arrivals; end-use split. Med
RankiaPro, "What is the situation of cocoa in 2026?", 2 Jun 2026, ICCO Quarterly Bulletin Vol. LII No. 1 (Feb 2026): production 4.728 Mt, grindings 4.606 Mt, surplus 75 kt, stocks 1.347 Mt, ratio 29.2%; 2023/24 crisis; May 2026 Ivorian rainfall. Med
Capital.com, "Cocoa Price Forecast", 2026, dated observations: $12,486.60 (19 Dec 2024); $8,399.20 (21 Apr 2025); $2,862.80 (2 Mar 2026); $3,780.80 (12 Jun) to $6,520.10 (9 Jul 2026); $5,702.90 (13 Jul); analyst division. Broker; used for dated points only. Med
ING Think, "Cocoa prices under pressure amid supply glut", 8 Dec 2025, 2018–22 London average GBP 1,749/t; 2024/25 surplus c.60 kt, first since 2020/21; Côte d'Ivoire c.1.8 Mt and Ghana 600 kt forecasts for 2025/26.
OFI Magazine, "Cocoa price slump impacting farmers in Ghana and Ivory Coast", 16 Mar 2026, Lipsa: three-year lows; 400–500 kt 2025/26 surplus; Latin American export strength; c.$3,230/t vs 2024 highs above $10,000.
Just2Trade, "Cocoa Price Prediction 2026–2030", 11 Aug 2026, grindings −6.7% (three regions, 9M 2025) and Asia −16% (Q2 2025) per ICCO; reformulation; Ivorian buyback 29 Jan 2026; Ghana 50,000 t unsold; StoneX 2026/27 surplus cut to 25 kt from 149 kt, 2025/26 c.422 kt; COCOBOD −16%+ warning, 450–550 kt range. Broker. Med
Radad International, "The Global Cocoa Market in 2026", 17 Feb 2026, 2023/24 deficit 489 kt; 2024/25 surplus 49 kt; 2025/26 projected 287 kt; farmgate +c.20% in 2024/25; EUDR compliance work; Ghana c.650 kt vs 800–900 kt historically. Med
Barchart, "Cocoa prices surge as ICCO cuts global cocoa production and surplus estimates", Nov 2025, ICCO cut to 49 kt from 142 kt and 4.69 Mt from 4.84 Mt; ICE US-port inventories 1,709,185 bags; fund net short 22,748 lots; Mondelez pod count +7%; Ivorian arrivals 618,899 t to 23 Nov (−3.7%); 1.75-year lows.
Reuters via CNBC Africa, "Ivory Coast sets cocoa farmgate price at 1,200 CFA francs per kg for 2026/27 main crop", 1 Sep 2026. London cocoa ~£2,100 in March, ~£3,800 late June, since above £4,800. cnbcafrica.comHigh
Investing.com, US Cocoa Futures (CCZ6) historical data, 16 Oct 2026. Close $5,645 (−3.19%); 18 Sep–18 Oct range $5,051–6,023; 52-week $2,846–6,821; one-year change −4.2%. investing.comHigh
Bloomberg, "Chocolate Demand Roars Back as Cocoa Grindings Beat Forecast", 15 Oct 2026. Europe +3.2% y/y, first quarterly gain since 2024 (ECA); Asia +29%, highest quarter since 2011 (CAA). bloomberg.comHigh
ADM Investor Services, "Europe & Asia Post Strong Cocoa Grind", 15 Oct 2026. Asia Q3 233,767 t (+29.2%); Europe YTD 990 kt vs 1.023 Mt, lowest since 2015; Germany 98,274 t (+3.6%); Gepex 157,446 t (+40.3%); Bloomberg poll had expected Europe lower. admis.comHigh
Reuters via TradingView, "Ghana sets 2026/27 farmgate cocoa price at 42,400 cedis per metric ton", 26 Sep 2026. +2.4%, c.$3,686/t; COCOBOD CEO Ransford Abbey. tradingview.comHigh
Ecofin Agency, "Ghana-Côte d'Ivoire Cocoa Price Gap Widens Sharply for 2026/27 Season", 28 Sep 2026. Ghana c.$3.65/kg vs Côte d'Ivoire $2.07/kg, c.75% gap; Ghana Cocoa Board Act 2026 (Act 1182) guarantees 70% of gross FOB, set at 71.18%; seasons opened 25 Sep and 1 Sep. ecofinagency.comMed
Vesper, "Ghana's cocoa farmgate price opens well above Ivory Coast's", 30 Sep 2026. June harmonisation agreement unmet; LBCs claim COCOBOD owes c.GHS 4bn ($348m); offshore syndicated loan discontinued 2024; 270-day cedi commercial paper; COCOBOD expects production down at least 16%. vespertool.comMed
Briefs.co (Bloomberg), "Cocobod sells 3.39b cedis in cocoa bills to fund 2026-27 bean purchases", 8 Oct 2026. First cocoa-bill sale since default; 11% coupon; 16.3bn-cedi programme; 650 kt target vs >750 kt delivered last season. briefs.coMed
CropGPT, "Cocoa Prices Drop as ICE Inventories Hit Multi-Year High", 6–9 Oct 2026. ICE stocks 3,538,981 bags, 2.25-year high; Cargill mark-to-market losses on cocoa; CPC: El Niño likely among the strongest in 75 years; Ivorian rain cut roads and bridges; December NY $5,670–$5,665 on the week; COCOBOD survey 650 kt, −13%. cropgpt.aiMed
J2T, "Cocoa Price Prediction 2026–2030", 5 Oct 2026. ATH $12,931 Dec 2024; cycle low $2,846 Apr 2026; $6,569 on 1 Sep 2026; $5,609 on 5 Oct. Vendor page; used for dated price points only. j2t.comLow
Barchart via Yahoo Finance, "Unexpected Strength in North American Cocoa Demand Boosts Prices", 17 Jul 2026. NCA Q2 +7.7% to 109,659 t; ICE stocks 2-year high 3.25 m bags; Ivorian arrivals 2.09 Mt to 12 Jul (+21%); 2026/27 Ivorian surveys average 1.8 Mt, −18% from c.2.2 Mt; Barry Callebaut fiscal Q3 sales +5.7%. yahoo.comMed
ICE Futures U.S., "Cocoa Futures", contract specifications: 10 metric tons; March, May, July, September, December; physical delivery to five US ports; origin premiums by group. ice.comHigh
ICE Futures Europe, "London Cocoa Futures", ten tonnes, £ per tonne, ten delivery months available; physical delivery in standard, large and bulk units. ice.comHigh
The Traders Spread, "Cocoa Falls 12.4% to $5,927 as Ivory Coast Arrivals Rise 19%", 9 Sep 2026, December cocoa 25,904 lots on 8 Sep; ICE certified stocks 3,411,776 bags on 1 Sep. Secondary, citing Investing.com and Trading Economics. thetradersspread.comMed
Barchart, "Cocoa Dec '26 Futures Contract Specifications", Oct 2026, margin/maintenance $9,482 / $8,620; last trading day eleven business days before the last business day of the delivery month. barchart.comMed
Changes in this refresh, 19 Oct 2026. Brief: date, regime and "Since last update" rewritten around the Q3 grindings turn and Ghana's season opening. Section I: 2026/27 crop-survey row added (Côte d'Ivoire 1.8 Mt, Ghana 650 kt, El Niño). Section II: ledger extended to 1 Sep and 16 Oct 2026; March/April cycle-low discrepancy logged. Section III: both country rows rebuilt with 2026/27 farmgate prices, the 75% gap, the unmet harmonisation pledge and COCOBOD's domestic financing; a derived paragraph on the two boards pricing in opposite directions. Section IV: the two 2025 demand-destruction cards replaced by Q3 2026 Europe and Asia prints; paragraph extended with origin grinding, panel caveat and the ICE stock high. Section VI: two rows updated, one added. Sources 11–20 added; 31 new sourced figures. No corrections to prior figures.