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Markets · Crops

Coffee

Σ2Accessible
Route: futures · 19 Oct 2026
Price regimeAs of 19 Oct 2026

A surplus year priced like a shortage: record Brazilian and world crops, yet ICE certified stocks near a 27-year low keep arabica above $3 into the December expiry.16High

Origins
Brazil · Vietnam · Colombia · Ethiopia · Indonesia
Principal markets
European Union · United States · Japan · China
Structure
Supply concentrationMediumLiquidityHighScarcityLow; Geisha HighProvenance riskMedium
Holding horizon
Contract-bounded
Arabica (37,500 lb) and robusta (10 t) futures expire five times a year and are rolled or delivered; index funds roll on a published five-day window. Any hold beyond a contract is a sequence of rolls priced off the spread, which stood at a 31 c premium for the nearby in August 2026.25DerivedHigh
Exit depth · futures
RoutesClose or roll ICE arabica (New York) or robusta (London) futures and options; a small number of coffee ETCs. Physical green coffee exits through exporters and trade houses, not a portfolio route.26High ActivityICE arabica traded 37,307 lots and robusta 38,611 on 20 October 2026; the quietest arabica session of the year was just over 17,000 lots on 6 April. ICE-certified arabica stocks fell to 226,242 bags in August, near a 27-year low.26 27 25ReportedHigh CostExchange and clearing fees per lot, broker commission and margin. With certified stocks this thin, the nearby spread has carried a steep backwardation, which pays a long roll but punishes any delivery-month squeeze.25Med TimeExit at the next trade during exchange hours; cleared the same day.DerivedHigh

Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.

Since last update

Arabica settled $3.056/lb on 16 Oct, a one-month high, as ICE certified stocks sat at 238,976 bags against last month's 27-year low of 217,646 and dealers doubted Brazilian coffee would reach warehouses before the December expiry.16 Supply is the opposite story: Conab lifted Brazil's 2026 crop to 67.6 m bags with arabica 48.2 m (+35%), above USDA for the first time, and USDA sees a record 189.7 m-bag world crop in 2026/27.1718 The tariff row carried here since launch is corrected below: coffee was exempted from the 50% Brazil tariff on 20 Nov 2025.22

Why Σ2

ICE arabica and robusta futures give continuous pricing and quick exit. Roll costs and weather-driven volatility are the limits, and the futures do not track specialty lots. Green coffee itself is not a portfolio holding.

The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →

Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 7 sections · 27 sources · open ↓close ↑

The world's most traded soft commodity after a two-year spike that took arabica to an all-time record in October 2025, followed by a 38% fall and two rallies inside 2026. Record production, record consumption, five consecutive years of falling stocks, a 50% US tariff on Brazilian beans, and the consolidation of the roasting industry into two global champions. No prices are carried as live values.

178.8 m bags
World production 2025/26 forecast, record (USDA, Dec 2025) Forecast1
173.9 m bags
World consumption 2025/26, record Forecast1
20.1 m bags
Ending stocks 2025/26, fifth consecutive decline Forecast1
$30,204 /kg
Best of Panama 2025 auction record, Hacienda La Esmeralda Geisha Reported6

ISupply

Two species, two countries, one weather system.

2025/26 (60-kg bags)VolumeChangeNote
World production178.8 m+2.0%USDA December 2025; June forecast was 178.68 m High1 2
of which arabicac.97.0 m−1.7%USDA June 2025 split Med2
of which robustac.81.7 m+7.9%Recovery in Vietnam; record Indonesia and Ethiopia Med2 1
Brazil63.0 m−3%Arabica down 6 m to 38 m on drought and heat in Minas Gerais and São Paulo; robusta/conilon up; USDA Brasília post forecast 65 m in May High1 3
Vietnamc.29.4–31 m+6–7%Four-year high; largest robusta producer; exports Jan–Oct 2025 +13.4% High2
World exports123.8 m+1.9%Gains in Vietnam, Indonesia, Honduras offset Brazil and Colombia High1
Discrepancy logged: Brazil's 2025 crop is put at 55.2 m bags by Conab (its September 2025 estimate, 35.2 m arabica) and 63–65 m by USDA. Conab counts the calendar-year harvest on a different basis and has historically run below USDA; both are official. USDA figures are used for the world balance.2 1 Med

Brazil's own semi-annual report describes a 13% fall in arabica against a 19% rise in robusta for 2025/26, with exports forecast down 2.4% to 40.75 m bags but at record value because of high prices; the 2024/25 export figure was revised up to 44.75 m.4 Brazil's minimum guaranteed prices for the 2025/26 harvest were set at BRL 662.04 per bag for arabica and BRL 498.79 for robusta.4 High

IIPrice history

Dated observations of the ICE arabica contract; no current value is carried.

$4.3795 /lb
Arabica all-time record, October 2025 Med5
−37.8%
Fall to $2.3885/lb on 9 June 2026 Med5
c.3×
Rise in the ICO composite indicator over the five years of stock drawdown High1
DateEventPrice reaction reported
Jan–Aug 2025ICE certified stocks fall; Brazilian drought; frostsSustained rally through the year5 6
6 Aug 2025US imposes 50% tariff on Brazilian coffeeArabica futures up over 30% through August; importers seek other origins; China increases Brazilian purchases6
Oct 2025Record high $4.3795/lbICO composite averages $3.30/lb in November5
H1 2026Record Brazilian 2026/27 crop expected on a strong biennial cycle; Rabobank sees an 8.9 m bag surplusDecline to $2.3885/lb by 9 June7 5
Jul–Aug 2026Harvest quality concerns; Colombian earthquake disruption; ICE certified arabica stocks fall through 300k bags toward a 1999 lowRallies to c.$3.20–3.42/lb on September-contract delivery fears, not on the balance, which the market agreed was in surplus5 7 24
Sep 2026Colombia's 2025/26 output −15%, lowest since 2022/23, exports −12% to 11.78 m bags; ICE certified stocks hit a 27-year low of 217,646 bags; Conab raises Brazil arabica above USDADip toward $2.87, then recovery above $3.0019 16 17
16 Oct 2026Certified stocks 238,976 bags; December expiry deliverability in questionSettles $3.056 (+3.7%), one-month high $3.113; 52-week range $2.39–4.3816 19

The structural reading is that five years of falling stocks left the market with no buffer, so weather in Brazil and policy in Washington move price directly. In 2026 the mechanism has narrowed further: the world is in surplus, but the exchange is not, because Brazilian arabica is not being tendered against ICE at these differentials, so each contract expiry becomes a squeeze. Vietnam's recovery supplies robusta, not arabica, which is why the arabica–robusta spread rather than the headline is the number roasters manage.1 2 24 Med

IIIDemand and trade structure

A concentrated buy-side facing millions of smallholders.

Fourteen companies, Caravela, ECOM, Export Trading Company, illycaffè, JDE Peet's, Louis Dreyfus, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, ofi, Sucafina, Sucden Coffee, Taylors of Harrogate, Touton, UCC and Volcafe, described by one trade commentator as "the entire concentrated buy-side of the global green coffee market", signed a joint procurement framework in April 2026 with no minimum price or enforcement mechanism.8 Med, single opinionated source; the list of signatories is factual, the characterisation is the author's.

Consolidation of roasting

EventDateDetail
Keurig Dr Pepper agrees to acquire JDE Peet's25 Aug 2025All-cash, €31.85 a share, 33% premium; c.$18 bn; JAB-affiliated Acorn Holdings (69% of votes) committed9 10
Offer completes1 Apr 202696.22% of shares acquired; delisting from Euronext Amsterdam 30 Apr 2026; JDE Peet's 2025 sales €9.9 bn, 21,000 staff11
Planned separationAfter an interim period"Global Coffee Co.", the world's largest pure-play coffee company, c.$16 bn combined sales, split from a North American beverages company; unwinds the 2018 Keurig–Dr Pepper merger10 12

Consumption reached a forecast record of 173.9 m bags in 2025/26 (+1.3%), and the US remains the largest home-coffee market; Chinese chains such as Luckin expanded into Hong Kong and Malaysia in 2025.1 12 Importers including Starbucks, Hershey and Mondelez warned in 2025 that tariffs would raise prices and pressure volumes.13 High

IVThe specialty tier

Where coffee behaves like a gemstone.

Best of Panama auctionPrice per kg (green)Note
2024 recordc.$13,500Previous world record6
2025, Hacienda La Esmeralda, 98-point lot$30,204World record; c.$600 per pound green6
2025, second Esmeralda lot$23,608Second-highest price on record6

The Geisha varietal, single-farm provenance and competition scoring create a market with no relationship to the ICE contract: scarcity, origin and a grading number set the price, exactly as colour, clarity and certificate do for a stone. The tier is tiny by volume and enormous by margin. Hyp

VPolicy and regulation

Tariffs and traceability.

MeasureStatusEffect
US 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee6 Aug – 20 Nov 2025; coffee then exempted by executive orderLargest supplier to the largest consumer; c.30% futures spike while in force; trade diverted; Brazil supplies c.30% of US green imports High6 22
US Section 301 duty on Brazil, 25%Effective 22 Jul 2026; coffee, including unflavoured instant, exempted in USTR's 15 Jul final notice after a June proposal to tax soluble; a second 301 action (12.5%) also exempted coffee on 23 JulAll Brazilian coffee enters the US duty-free; the exemption protects c.30% of US green imports High22 23
US baseline 10% tariff2025Importers warn of price and volume effects High13
EU–Mercosur agreementProvisional application from 1 May 2026Green coffee (97% of Brazil's EU coffee exports) already duty-free; EU tariffs of 9% on instant and 7.5% on roasted eliminated over four years; 45% of Brazil's green exports went to the EU in 2025 ($7.3bn) High20
Brazil minimum guaranteed prices2026/27 harvest (Apr 2026 – Mar 2027)BRL 792.53 arabica (+20%), BRL 556.97 robusta (+12%) per bag; 2025/26 were 662.04 and 498.79 High21 4
EU Deforestation Regulation (coffee in scope)Implementation timing has shifted; not verified for this pageGeolocation traceability to plot level for every consignment into the EU Low
Correction, 19 Oct 2026. From launch to 5 October this page showed the 50% US tariff on Brazilian coffee as in force "from 6 Aug 2025", and the 5 October brief attributed the August 2026 rally partly to "a new US tariff on Brazilian coffee". Coffee was exempted from the 50% tariff by executive order on 20 November 2025, and the July 2026 Section 301 duty carved coffee out again, including instant. No Brazilian coffee has been taxed into the US since 13 November 2025. The August rally was an ICE delivery squeeze. Both rows are restated.22 23 24

VIIndicators to monitor

Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.

IndicatorSource & cadenceWhat it tells you
World supply, demand and stocksUSDA FAS Coffee: World Markets and Trade, June and DecemberThe balance; whether stocks rebuild after five years of drawdown
Brazil crop estimatesConab (four times a year); Safras & Mercado; USDA Brasília GAIN reportsThe swing producer; arabica versus conilon split
ICE certified stocks, arabica and robustaICE dailyPhysical tightness that drives spikes
ICO composite indicatorInternational Coffee Organization, monthlyBlended price reference; not carried here
Weather: La Niña / El Niño and Brazilian flowering (Sep–Nov)NOAA; INMETNext-crop risk
US tariff schedule and EUDR implementationUSTR; European CommissionTrade-flow diversion and compliance cost
Roaster consolidation and separationKDP / Global Coffee Co. filingsBuy-side concentration

VIISources

Numbered in order of first citation. USDA is the primary statistical source; price observations are from market commentary and are dated. Sources 25–27 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.

Show 27 sources
  1. Comunicaffe, "USDA forecasts world coffee production for 2025/26 at an all-time high of 178.8 million bags", 19 Dec 2025, summarising USDA FAS "Coffee: World Markets and Trade", December 2025: production 178.8 m (+2%); consumption 173.9 m (+1.3%); exports 123.8 m; ending stocks 20.1 m, fifth consecutive decline; Brazil 63.0 m with arabica 38.0 m; ICO composite nearly tripled.
  2. Nasdaq / Barchart, "Coffee Prices Supported by Tighter ICE Inventories", 7 Nov 2025, USDA June 2025: 178.68 m; arabica 97.022 m (−1.7%); robusta 81.658 m (+7.9%); Brazil 65 m; Vietnam 31 m; Conab September cut to 55.2 m (arabica 35.2 m); Vietnam exports and 29.4 m forecast; NOAA La Niña probability.
  3. USDA FAS, "Coffee Annual, Brazil" (BR2025-0013), May 2025, 65 m bags; arabica 40.9 m; robusta 24.1 m; exports 41.7 m.
  4. USDA FAS, "Coffee Semi-annual, Brazil" (BR2025-0048), Dec 2025, arabica −13%, robusta +19%; exports 40.75 m at record value; 2024/25 exports 44.75 m; minimum prices BRL 662.04 and 498.79.
  5. Just2Trade, "Coffee price forecast from 2026 to 2030", Sep 2026, record $4.3795/lb Oct 2025; $2.3885 on 9 Jun 2026 (−37.8%); July and August 2026 rallies; ICO $3.30 Nov 2025; certified stocks near 26-year low. Broker commentary; dated observations only. Med
  6. World Coffee Beans, "Coffee News August 2025", 12 Sep 2025, 50% US tariff from 6 Aug; futures +30%; Best of Panama records $30,204/kg and $23,608/kg; 2024 record c.$13,500/kg; USDA 178.7 m. Med
  7. Trading Economics, Coffee commodity page, 14 Aug 2026, Brazil 2026/27 harvest 97% complete; Rabobank 8.9 m bag surplus; Colombian earthquake; stock replenishment unlikely before November. Used for events, not for price.
  8. Burke Campbell (Substack), "The Buried Bean, April 2026", list of fourteen signatories to the procurement framework; author's critique. Med
  9. Keurig Dr Pepper, press release, 25 Aug 2025, €31.85 per share; 33% premium; Acorn 69%; planned separation into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co.
  10. CNBC, "Keurig Dr Pepper to buy Dutch coffee company JDE Peet's in $18 billion deal", 25 Aug 2025, unwinding the 2018 merger; c.$16 bn coffee-company sales; Barclays comment.
  11. Keurig Dr Pepper, "Keurig Dr Pepper Acquires JDE Peet's", 1 Apr 2026, 96.22% acquired; delisting 30 Apr 2026; JDE Peet's €9.9 bn sales, 21,000 employees.
  12. Global Coffee Report, "2025 in review: tariffs, trade, and changes", 15 Jan 2026, KDP–JDE Peet's as the year's largest deal; Luckin expansion; Nescafé US launch.
  13. Barchart, "Coffee prices sharply lower on expectations of robust global supplies", 2025, importer tariff warnings (Starbucks, Hershey, Mondelez); Honduras 5.8 m forecast; Safras and Conab revisions.
  14. J2T, "Coffee price forecast from 2026 to 2030", Sep 2026. June low ~$2.39; late-Aug $3.42; ~$2.87 on 14 Sep. Secondary compilation. j2t.com Low
  15. Trading Economics, Arabica coffee news, Aug–Sep 2026. Harvest >90% complete; Marex 75.9 M, StoneX 75.3 M bag Brazil forecasts. tradingeconomics.com Med
  16. Reuters via Business Recorder, "Arabica coffee touches one-month high", 16–18 Oct 2026. Settled +10.8c (+3.7%) at $3.056/lb; high $3.1130; ICE certified stocks 238,976 bags vs last month's 27-year low of 217,646; Brazilian supplies may not reach ICE warehouses before December expiry. brecorder.com High
  17. Conab, third 2026 coffee survey, 24 Sep 2026, via Revista Cultivar and Barchart. 67.6 m bags (+19.6%), record; arabica 48.21 m (+34.8%); robusta 19.39 m (−6.6%); 99% harvested; area 1.95 m ha; yield 34.6 bags/ha; J. Ganes: first time Conab's arabica estimate exceeds USDA's (by 710,000 bags). revistacultivar.com High
  18. USDA FAS, "Coffee: World Markets and Trade", Jun 2026, and GAIN Coffee Annual, Brazil, Jun 2026. World 2026/27 production record 189.7 m bags; Brazil 71.9 m, arabica 47.5 m (+9.5 m); ending stocks 26.3 m (+1.9 m); exports record 45.0 m; minimum price BRL 792.53 arabica. fas.usda.gov High
  19. Barchart via Yahoo Finance, "Arabica Coffee Prices Finish Higher on Supply Concerns", 14 Oct 2026. Colombia 2025/26 production −15% to 12.65 m bags, exports −12% to 11.78 m (FNC); above-normal Brazilian flowering rain. yahoo.com Med
  20. USDA FAS, "EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement: The Brazilian Perspective", Feb 2026, with Rio Times guide Apr 2026. Green coffee 97% of Brazil's EU coffee exports, already duty-free; 9% instant and 7.5% roasted tariffs eliminated within four years; 45% of green exports to EU in 2025 ($7.3bn); provisional application 1 May 2026. fas.usda.gov High
  21. Conab / MAPA Portaria nº 895, 26 Mar 2026, via Canal Rural. Minimum prices 2026/27: arabica BRL 792.53/bag (+19.71%), conilon BRL 556.97 (+11.66%); valid Apr 2026 – Mar 2027. gov.br/conab High
  22. Supply Chain Dive, "US exempts coffee, other agricultural products from Brazil tariffs", 21 Nov 2025, and Sprudge, 24 Nov 2025. Executive Order 14361 signed 20 Nov 2025 removes the 40% Brazil levy on coffee, beef, cocoa and fruit, retroactive to 13 Nov; the 10% reciprocal tariff on coffee lifted the prior week. supplychaindive.com High
  23. National Coffee Association, "NCA applauds exemption of coffee from Section 301 tariffs on Brazil", 16 Jul 2026, with Thompson Coburn summary 29 Jul 2026 and Revista Cultivar 24 Jul 2026. 25% Section 301 tariff effective 22 Jul 2026; coffee including unflavoured instant exempted; second 301 action (12.5%) also exempts coffee. ncausa.org High
  24. EBC, "Why Is Arabica Coffee Near a 10-Week Low Despite 27-Year-Low ICE Stocks?", 17 Sep 2026, and Perfect Daily Grind recap 28 Aug 2026. $2.817 on 16 Sep; certified stocks 217,646 bags; record August Brazilian exports 4.155 m bags (+31%); c.64,000 bags awaiting grading; Reuters poll: 2025/26 surplus 1.7 m, 2026/27 8.2 m bags, arabica $3 by year-end. ebc.com Med
  25. Sucafina, "Market Report", weekly, 19 and 26 Aug 2026, nearby spread 31 c premium; ICE certified arabica stocks 226,242 bags, within reach of the November 2023 low and the lowest since 1999 if broken. sucafina.com Med
  26. StoneX, "Daily Coffee Report 10/20/26", 20 Oct 2026, ICE arabica volume 37,307 lots; ICE robusta 38,611; Brazil arabica 967. Source: Refinitiv. stonex.com High
  27. StoneX, "Daily Coffee Report 4/6/26", 6 Apr 2026, arabica volume just above 17,000 lots, lowest since 26 December; index roll window 7–13 April. stonex.com High
Changes in this refresh, 19 Oct 2026. Brief: date, regime and "Since last update" rewritten around the December delivery squeeze and the record Brazilian crop. Section II: two ledger rows added (Sep and 16 Oct 2026); structural paragraph extended with the exchange-versus-world distinction. Section V: the tariff row corrected (coffee exempted 20 Nov 2025, not in force since), Section 301 and EU–Mercosur rows added, Brazilian minimum prices updated to 2026/27; correction logged in place. Sources 16–24 added; 33 new sourced figures; one correction. Sections I, III and IV carry their launch figures and are due for refresh when USDA's December update lands.
ISupplyIIPrice historyIIIDemand and trade structureIVThe specialty tierVPolicy and regulationVIIndicators to monitorVIISources
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Themes that cover this market
Provenance and verificationSynthetic and substitute pressureClimate and supply shockSanctions, tariffs and originStorage, custody and insuranceTax and legal wrappersFractional and fund accessExit depth: who buys when you sellAuction or dealerWho sets the price
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