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Markets · Metals, Energy & Strategic Materials

Copper

Σ2Accessible
Route: futures · 19 Oct 2026
Price regimeAs of 19 Oct 2026

ICSG has swung back to a 2026 surplus, yet the price holds within 5% of its September record: the metal is plentiful in the wrong country. Grasberg's full return has slipped to 2028.19High

Origins
Chile · Peru · DR Congo · China · United States
Principal markets
China · Europe · United States · Japan
Structure
Supply concentrationHigh, refining (mine Medium)LiquidityHighScarcityMediumProvenance riskLow
Holding horizon
Contract-bounded
A futures position has no fixed life but must be rolled: LME prompts run daily to three months, weekly to six and monthly to ten years. A holding of any length is a sequence of contracts, and each roll pays or earns the shape of the curve.34DerivedHigh
Exit depth · futures
RoutesClose or roll LME or COMEX futures; sell ETF units; physical cathode only by warrant and warehouse, impractical for portfolios.33High ActivityLME copper traded over 170,000 lots a day in 2025 and 168,000 in Q2 2026, at 25 t a lot. LME average daily volume January–September 2026 was 16% above the prior year.33 35 36ReportedHigh CostExchange and clearing fees per lot, broker commission and margin funding. The material cost is the roll, paid on every prompt in contango; the COMEX–LME arbitrage gap was near 14 c/lb in Q2.35Med TimeExit at the next trade in a continuous market; LME cash settles on a prompt two business days forward.34DerivedHigh

Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.

Since last update

ICSG's 14 October forecast puts 2026 in a 104 kt surplus and 2027 at 368 kt; its April revision to surplus was missed at launch and the −150 kt headline carried here is corrected below.19 LME three-month $14,407.50 on 16 Oct and COMEX $6.56/lb, +32% on the year and ~5% below the 9 Sep record.2322 The US refined-cathode tariff decision lapsed on 28 Sep with no announcement; the COMEX premium has collapsed from over $3,000/t to ~$310 while US warehouses hold ~70% of visible exchange stock.2829 Grasberg's mill is at 67%; full capacity is now early 2028.2625

Why Σ2

Exposure runs through LME and COMEX futures or ETFs, which are priced continuously and exit within days. Holding through futures carries roll costs and contango risk, the one material limit. Physical cathode is impractical for most portfolios.

The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →

Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 7 sections · 36 sources · open ↓close ↑

The energy-transition bellwether after a year in which the world's second-largest mine flooded, the forecast surplus became a deficit and then a surplus again, the metal set a record, and the United States put a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper while leaving cathode in limbo. This page covers the balance, the disruption ledger, supply and refining concentration, the corporate consolidation and the policy layer. No prices are carried as live values.

+104 kt
ICSG forecast refined surplus 2026 (14 Oct 2026), from a −150 kt deficit forecast a year earlier; 2027 +368 kt Forecast19 21
early 2028
Grasberg full-capacity date, from end-2027; mill at 67% on 2 Oct 2026 Reported25 26
36%
Share of world supply from the 20 largest mines, 2025 Estimate1
>48%
China's share of refined production, 2025 (14 Mt) Reported10

IThe balance

Surplus to deficit to surplus in eighteen months of forecasts.

ForecasterDate2026 refined balanceNote
ICSGApr 2025small surplusSofter ex-China demand; improved availability11
Benchmark Mineral Intelligencepre-Sep 2025−72 kt"Relatively balanced"1 2
Benchmark Mineral IntelligenceSep–Oct 2025c.−400 ktAfter Grasberg; "steep deficit"1 2
ICSGOct 2025−150 kt2026 surplus of 209 kt abandoned (2025 still a 178 kt surplus); concentrate bottleneck named as the brake21 4
J.P. MorganQ1 2026−330 ktAverage price forecast $12,075/t (recorded as a house view, not updated)5 3
ICSGApr 2026+96 ktDeficit withdrawn; mine growth cut to 1.6% (24.2 Mt) on Grasberg and Kamoa, but usage growth cut harder to 1.6% (28.9 Mt) on the Middle East conflict; refined output 30.4 Mt; 2027 +377 kt20
Wood MackenzieAug 2026slight surplusSupported by US tariff inflows28
ICSG14 Oct 2026+104 ktRefined output +0.4% 2026, +3.4% 2027 on Indonesian, Indian and EU smelters; usage +1.5% and +2.5%; 2027 +368 kt19
CitiOct 2025a further −350 kt in 2027Unless prices ration demand; now contradicted by ICSG's 2027 surplus6 19
Correction, 19 Oct 2026. From launch to 5 October this page carried ICSG's October 2025 forecast of a 150 kt 2026 deficit, "the first structural shortage since 2009", as current. ICSG had replaced it with a 96 kt surplus in April 2026 and a 104 kt surplus on 14 October. The error was one of timing: a six-month-old forecast was carried past its revision. The headline figure, the table above and the intro are restated; the analyst deficit forecasts below it are retained as dated house views.20 19

The paper surplus and the record price coexist because stock is maldistributed, not abundant. Macquarie counts visible stocks up 300 kt in 2026 worldwide, all of it the US build; everywhere else they are down 168 kt.31 Med The 2026 benchmark treatment charge settled at $0/t, from $21.25 in 2025, with spot concentrate TCs near −$127/t at end-June: smelters are paying miners for feed, which is why refined output growth is 0.4% while mine output grows 1.6%.30 20 Med

A 100–370 kt swing either way is under 1.3% of a c.29 Mt refined market, but with inelastic demand the marginal tonne sets the price for the whole market, which is why the metal set records in 2026 while Chinese demand was described as muted.5 10 Med Chinese smelters, short of concentrate, cut production; one analysis puts the refined deficit above 350 kt if a 20% Chinese cut persists through Q4 2026.3 Low

Discrepancy logged: Benchmark's "c.591 kt" of lost Grasberg output (Sep 2025–Dec 2026) and Goldman Sachs' "525 kt total mine-supply loss" (c.260 kt 2025, c.270 kt 2026) measure similar things on different bases; Freeport's own guidance cut was 600 million lb (c.272 kt) for 2026 alone, with Q4 2025 sales "insignificant". All three are shown; none is reconciled. Benchmark's later figure for 2025 alone is 278 kt, 1.2% of world mine output.1 2 7 26 Med

Price, recorded 19 October 2026

LME three-month closed $14,407.50 on 16 October; the LME Official was $14,595.23 24 COMEX $6.56/lb the same day, +31.9% on a year earlier and +15.2% year to date, 4.7% below the $6.89 record of 9 September.22 High The LME record cash close remains $14,737 on 8 September.18 The 14 October CPI print and renewed rate-hike pricing knocked the metal back mid-month before it firmed on supply risk.28 Med

IIThe 2025 disruption ledger

Why a market of 23 Mt turned on a handful of mines.

to end-Aug 2025
c.497 kt of copper already lost to disruptions across the industry, including Kamoa-Kakula (DRC, seismic event) and El Teniente (Chile).8 2
8 Sep 2025
c.800 kt of wet material flows into multiple levels of the Grasberg Block Cave, Papua, Indonesia; underground operations suspended; two workers confirmed dead and five missing at the time of the force majeure.1 8
24 Sep 2025
Freeport-McMoRan declares force majeure; LME three-month copper hits $10,364/t (+4% on the day); FCX shares fall 17%, c.$11 bn of market value.1 7
Sep–Oct 2025
The Block Cave is c.70% of Grasberg's output; Grasberg loses its concentrate export licence, so the loss falls on the refined market; 2026 guidance cut 35%.3 1 6
Late Oct 2025
Unaffected DMLZ and Big Gossan mines restart; Freeport guides 2026 district output of c.1.0 bn lb copper, similar to reduced 2025.27
Q4 2025
Anglo American cuts Chilean guidance to 390–420 kt; Cochilco's Chilean baseline holds near 5.5 Mt, masking mine-level fragility.5
Jan 2026
All-time high above $6/lb on COMEX; LME three-month intraday record $14,527.50 on 29 Jan.10
End-Mar 2026
Grasberg Block Cave Production Blocks 2 and 3 begin ramp-up; Block 1S planned Q2 2027, Block 1C by end-2027.27
May 2026
Freeport Indonesia pushes full capacity to early 2028 from end-2027, citing logistics and ore-handling work; output at 40–50%; targets 65% in H2 2026 and 80% by mid-2027.25
8–9 Sep 2026
LME record cash close $14,737/t; COMEX record $6.89/lb.18 22
2 Oct 2026
Grasberg mill throughput reaches 67%; phased timeline reaffirmed.26

The structural point is concentration: the twenty largest mines supply 36% of the world, most are ageing, and no new mine replaces them; Benchmark's phrase is "the sector's dependence on a small group of major mines".1 10 High

IIISupply and refining

Mined in the Andes and the Copperbelt, refined in China.

Mine production, 2024 (USGS / industry compilations)

Chile
c.5.5 Mt
DRC
3.3 Mt (+12.6%)
Peru
2.6 Mt (−6%)
China
1.8 Mt
World
c.23 Mt

World mine output c.23 Mt and refined c.27 Mt in 2024 per USGS; DRC's rise driven by Kamoa-Kakula (437 kt in 2024; 2025 guidance 520–580 kt); China's mine output fell for a third year to 1.8 Mt while it holds the largest reserves (190 Mt).9 11 10 High

Refining, 2025

China
14 Mt · >48%
DRC
2.8 Mt

China refined six times the DRC's volume in 2025 and, in November 2025, its refined-copper exports rose c.1,100% year on year, a country shifting from importer to exporter of cathode as domestic demand softened.10 12 13 Med The refining bottleneck, not the mine, is the binding constraint in 2026: smelters lack concentrate even where mine output rises.4

Discrepancy logged: China's refined output is given as 14 Mt / >48% for 2025 and 12 Mt / 44% for 2024 by different compilations; both are consistent with growth between the years and are shown with their dates.10 9

IVThe corporate map

Consolidation toward copper.

EventDateDetail
BHP's approach for Anglo American fails2024Anglo pivots to copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients; demerges platinum, puts De Beers up for sale14
Anglo American – Teck merger of equals announced9 Sep 2025To create a top-five global copper producer as Anglo Teck plc; shareholders of both approve 9 Dec 2025; Investment Canada approval 15 Dec 2025; final regulatory approval (China SAMR the long pole) and completion expected Sep 2026–Mar 2027; $800m annual synergies; $4.5bn Anglo special dividend on completion14 32
Teck's Quebrada Blanca ramp2025–26Q4 2025 output 55 kt; 2026 guidance 455–530 kt; steady state expected end-202614
Freeport-McMoRan / PT Freeport IndonesiaSep 2025–Force majeure; 2026 district guidance c.1.0 bn lb copper; full capacity early 2028; 2027–29 average 1.6 bn lb7 25 27
Ivanhoe Mines / Zijin, Kamoa-Kakula2025Africa's growth engine; seismic disruption in 20259 2
Codelco2025–26State producer; Chilean baseline c.5.5 Mt nationally; technology partnership with Microsoft3 5
Diamond parallel: the same Anglo American restructuring runs through three issues of this series, copper is what Anglo chose, platinum (Valterra) is what it spun out, and De Beers is what it sold. The board's judgement was that a single-commodity electrification metal with a deficit would be valued more highly than a luxury franchise with a substitution problem. Hyp

VPolicy: tariffs and critical-mineral status

The United States taxes its semi-finished imports and leaves cathode undecided.

MeasureDetailConfidence
Section 232 copper tariff, 50%Proclamation "Adjusting Imports of Copper into the United States", effective 1 Aug 2025, on semi-finished and derivative products (pipe, wire, rod, sheet); refined cathode exempt; stacks on Section 122 and 301 surcharges; FTAs do not exempt it beyond narrow carve-outs12 15 28High
Refined-cathode tariff, phasedApril 2026 proclamation set 15% from Jan 2027 and 30% from Jan 2028, subject to a presidential decision after Commerce's 30 June update; the implied 28 Sep window passed with no announcement; White House said 10 Sep no decision made. Market treating it as a soft no28 29Med
US stock build and arbitrageUS inventories c.1.6 Mt (Goldman mid-year: 1.8 Mt by end-2026), COMEX c.700 kt, c.70% of visible exchange stock; COMEX–LME premium from >$3,000/t (Jul 2025) to c.$310/t29 17Med
US import sourcesRefined copper imports 2024: Chile 65%, Canada 17%, Mexico 9%, Peru 6% (USGS); Chile c.$4.5 bn of cathode from Codelco, Anglo American Sur, Escondida, Antofagasta16 15High
US net import reliance45% (2024) to an estimated 57% (2025) as domestic mine output fell 9–10% and refined imports hit a record c.1.63–1.70 Mt on tariff front-loading; USGS critical-mineral designation13Med
Chinese export flowsRefined exports +1,100% year on year in Nov 202512Med

The tariff protects a refining base that is shrinking: domestic refined output fell an estimated 9–10% in 2025 on maintenance and grades, and recycled copper covers roughly 30–35% of US supply.13 The undecided cathode tariff has done the real work: the threat alone pulled 1.6 Mt into the US, where it sits stranded, while the rest of the world runs on about 300 kt of exchange stock. Med

Correction, 19 Oct 2026. The launch text described the 50% Section 232 tariff as applying to "cathode, refined copper, alloys and defined downstream products". Refined cathode has been exempt since the August 2025 proclamation; the 50% rate covers semi-finished and derivative products only. The row is restated and the cathode decision is tracked separately.28 29

VIIndicators to monitor

Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.

IndicatorSource & cadenceWhat it tells you
Refined market balanceICSG monthly bulletin and April/October forecasts (latest 14 Oct 2026)Deficit or surplus size; concentrate-versus-smelter gap
Grasberg restart and PTFI guidanceFreeport-McMoRan quarterlies (Q3 2026 due late Oct)The single largest swing in 2026–27 supply; 65% H2 2026 target
Exchange stocks (LME, COMEX, SHFE) and tariff-driven arbitrageExchange reports, dailyWhere metal is being pulled; US premium
Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs)Annual benchmark and spot, via Fastmarkets/CRUConcentrate scarcity; 2026 benchmark $0/t, spot negative
Chinese refined output, exports and smelter cutsNBS; customs data, monthlyWhether China is a net exporter of cathode
Chile and Peru productionCochilco monthly; Peruvian MINEMBase-load supply; grade decline
Anglo–Teck merger clearancesCompany announcements; Chinese and Korean regulatorsConsolidation of the copper majors
US Section 232 scope and exemptionsUSTR / Commerce notices; presidential decision on refined cathodeLanded cost for US fabricators; whether 1.6 Mt of US stock is released

VIISources

Numbered in order of first citation. ICSG and USGS are primary; analyst forecasts are recorded as house views at the date made. Sources 33–36 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.

Show 36 sources
  1. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, "Grasberg supply shock to plunge refined copper market into deficit in 2026", 26 Sep 2025, c.591 kt lost Sep 2025–Dec 2026; more than Collahuasi's 2026 output; top-20 mines 36% of supply; export-licence loss shifts impact to the refined market; LME $10,364/t on 24 Sep; 800 kt of material; casualties.
  2. MetalMiner, "Global Copper Market Deficit Balloons on Grasberg Collapse", 6 Oct 2025, Benchmark deficit revision 72 kt to 400 kt; Goldman Sachs 525 kt loss (260 kt 2025, 270 kt 2026); c.$10,485/t 15-month high; El Teniente disruption.
  3. Skillings Mining Intelligence, "Copper Price Forecast 2026: Deficits, Smelting", 12 May 2026, Block Cave c.70% of Grasberg output; closure to at least Q2 2026; J.P. Morgan $12,075/t average and Q2 peak; Chinese smelter cuts; Codelco–Microsoft. Med
  4. The Oregon Group, "International Copper Study Group warns of 150,000t deficit in 2026", 28 Oct 2025, ICSG October forecast; concentrate-versus-smelter imbalance as the brake.
  5. Mining Visuals, "Copper Market Balance: A Look at 2026 Deficit Forecasts", 25 Mar 2026, ICSG surplus abandoned; first deficit since 2009; J.P. Morgan 330 kt; Anglo Chile guidance 390–420 kt; Cochilco c.5.5 Mt; deficit as 0.5–1.1% of a 28.7 Mt market. Med
  6. Economies.com, "The crisis facing copper markets after a year of disruptions", 14 Oct 2025, Citi 350 kt 2027 shortfall; Grasberg over 3% of world supply; 2026 guidance cut 35%; normal operations 2027. Med
  7. Robert Sinn (Substack), "Force Majeure Declared At Massive Grasberg Copper-Gold Mine", Sep 2025, Freeport statements: 2026 output 600 m lb copper and 560 koz gold below guidance; Q4 2025 sales "insignificant"; FCX −17%. Med
  8. MetalMiner via Seeking Alpha, "Global Copper Deficit Balloons As Grasberg Collapse Joins Year Of Disruptions", c.497 kt lost by end-August 2025; 800 kt wet material on 8 Sep; force majeure definition.
  9. NAI 500, "Which Countries Lead the World in Copper Production? (USGS and MDO Data)", 27 Feb 2025, world 23 Mt 2024; DRC 3.3 Mt (+12.6%); Kamoa-Kakula 437,061 t and 2025 guidance; Peru 2.6 Mt (−6%); China 1.8 Mt mined, 12 Mt refined (44%), 190 Mt reserves. Med
  10. Investing News Network, "Top 10 Copper Producers by Country", 11 Jun 2026, China refined 14 Mt, >48% of world, six times the DRC; all-time high above $6/lb on COMEX in January 2026; ageing mines; muted Chinese demand; China mined 1.8 Mt in 2025 (peak 1.94 Mt in 2022). Med
  11. MGX Global, "Global Copper", 26 Aug 2025, USGS refined c.27 Mt and mine c.23 Mt in 2024; ICSG April 2025 small surplus; secondary copper as swing source. Secondary summary of USGS/ICSG. Med
  12. The Motley Fool, "Copper Tariffs: Who Does the U.S. Import Most From?", 25 Feb 2026, 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished and derivative products from 1 Aug; China 14 Mt refined 2025; DRC 2.8 Mt; and Leanrs, "Copper Price Forecast 2026", 7 Jan 2026, Chinese refined exports +1,100% y/y in Nov 2025; deficit of at least 150 kt. Med
  13. Discovery Alert, "America's Copper Gap Is a Refining Problem, Not a Mining One", Sep 2026, net import reliance 45% (2024) to c.57% (2025); refined imports c.1.63–1.70 Mt; domestic mine and refined output −9–10%; Chile 51% and Canada 31% of US imports; recycled 30–35%; USGS critical-mineral designation. Med
  14. Yahoo Finance, "Teck Resources Q4 earnings call", Feb 2026, merger of equals announced 9 Sep 2025; shareholder approvals 9 Dec 2025; clearances pending in China and South Korea; 12–18 month close; QB 55 kt in Q4; 2026 guidance 455–530 kt.
  15. TariffsTool, "Copper Tariff 2026: 50% Section 232, What Importers Pay", 2 May 2026, proclamation scope; stacking with Section 122 and 301; FTA non-exemption; Chile c.$4.5 bn, Canada $1.2 bn, Mexico $0.9 bn, Peru $0.75 bn (2024). Med
  16. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, Copper (D. M. Flanagan), US refined-copper import sources: Chile 65%, Canada 17%, Mexico 9%, Peru 6%; refined 88% of unmanufactured imports; 2024 domestic output −3%; Bingham Canyon and Eagle mine issues.
  17. Copper.com.au, "Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 2 October 2026", 2 Oct 2026. LME $14,253.50/t on 1 Oct; ~4% below September record; COMEX–LME gap largely closed. copper.com.au Med
  18. Tacto, "Copper Price Today", 14 Sep 2026. Record LME cash close $14,737/t on 8 Sep; Section 232 refined-copper decision still open. tacto.ai Med
  19. Mining Weekly (Reuters), "ICSG sees global refined copper surplus widening in 2027", 14 Oct 2026. 2026 surplus c.104 kt; 2027 368 kt; refined output +0.4% / +3.4%; usage +1.5% / +2.5%; Indonesia, India and EU smelter ramp-ups. miningweekly.com High
  20. E&MJ, "ICSG Forecasts Growth in Copper Usage", May 2026, reporting ICSG Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027 (Apr 2026). 2026 surplus 96 kt, 2027 377 kt; mine growth 2026 cut 2.3% to 1.6% (24.2 Mt), 2027 2.3% (25.8 Mt); refined 30.4 Mt (+0.4%); usage 28.9 Mt (+1.6%, from 2.1%); Grasberg and Kamoa constrained. e-mj.com High
  21. Mining Weekly, "Copper market expected to be in surplus in 2025 followed by deficit in 2026, ICSG says", 8 Oct 2025. 2025 surplus c.178 kt; 2026 deficit 150 kt (from 209 kt surplus); refined output +0.9% 2026. miningweekly.com High
  22. Macrotrends, Copper Prices 1959–2026, 16 Oct 2026. COMEX $6.56/lb; +31.9% y/y from $4.97; +15.2% YTD; record $6.89 on 9 Sep 2026. macrotrends.net Med
  23. LME, LME Copper, data for 16 Oct 2026. Three-month closing price $14,407.50. lme.com High
  24. KME, Metal Prices (LME Officials), 16 Oct 2026. Copper $14,595/t. kme.com High
  25. Mining.com (Reuters), "Freeport delays Grasberg full restart to early 2028", May 2026. From end-2027; output 40–50%; 65% H2 2026, 80% mid-2027; logistics and ore-handling work; seven deaths. mining.com High
  26. The Northern Miner, "Freeport's Grasberg copper mill reaches 67% after last year's mudslide", 2 Oct 2026. BMO: timeline reaffirmed; Benchmark 278 kt lost from 2025 supply, 1.2% of world mine output; 800 kt/yr smelting capacity. northernminer.com High
  27. Freeport-McMoRan, Form 8-K Q1 2026 (Exhibit 99.1), Apr 2026. DMLZ and Big Gossan restarted Oct 2025; Blocks 2 and 3 ramp-up from end-March 2026; Block 1S Q2 2027; Block 1C by end-2027; and Freeport release Nov 2025: 2026 district c.1.0 bn lb copper, 0.9 Moz gold. sec.gov High
  28. Copper.com.au, "Copper Weekly Brief, 15 October 2026". Cathode tariff-free; April proclamation 15% 2027 / 30% 2028 pending presidential decision after Commerce's 30 June update; 28 Sep window passed; ICSG Oct 2026 and Wood Mackenzie Aug 2026 balances; CPI 14 Oct. copper.com.au Med
  29. ScrapMonster, "U.S. Copper Stockpile Hits 1.6M Tons", 15 Oct 2026. COMEX c.70% of visible exchange stock; COMEX+LME+SHFE just over 1 Mt; arbitrage >$3,000/t Jul 2025 to c.$310/t; White House 10 Sep no decision. scrapmonster.com Med
  30. Bloodstone Research, "Copper: The Tariff Trade Deflates", 9 Oct 2026. 2026 benchmark TC/RC $0/t from $21.25; spot TC c.−$127/t end-June; China social inventory c.100 kt (+27.3 kt); SHFE ¥111,710/t; LME 3M $14,415 on 8 Oct. bloodstonecapital.co.uk Med
  31. Mining.com, "Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026 but tariff 'collapse' still on the table", 15 Oct 2026, reporting Macquarie. Visible stocks +300 kt in 2026, all US; ex-US −168 kt; "the great copper gamble". mining.com Med
  32. Anglo American, "Anglo American and Teck announce future Anglo Teck Executive Leadership Team", 30 Jul 2026. Completion conditional on final regulatory approval, expected Sep 2026–Mar 2027; c.$800m synergies; and AGM address 29 Apr 2026: $4.5bn special dividend on completion; Teck 6-K: Investment Canada approval 15 Dec 2025. angloamerican.com High
  33. London Metal Exchange, "LME Copper", over 170,000 lots traded on average every day in 2025; lot size 25 t; physical settlement. lme.com High
  34. London Metal Exchange, "LME Copper contract specifications", prompt dates daily to 3 months, weekly 3–6 months, monthly 7–123 months; tick $0.50/t. lme.com High
  35. Recycling Today, "LME reports active Q2 2026", 17 Jul 2026, LME ADV over 810,000 lots/day; copper 168,000 lots/day (+0.3% y/y); COMEX–LME spread near 14 c/lb. recyclingtoday.com Med
  36. Shanghai Metals Market, "SMM Copper Morning Briefing", 23 Oct 2026, LME ADV January–September 2026 +16% y/y, cited at LME Week. news.metal.com Med
Changes in this refresh, 19 Oct 2026. Brief: date, regime and "Since last update" rewritten. Intro and headline figures: ICSG −150 kt replaced by +104 kt (14 Oct 2026); Grasberg lost-tonnage figure replaced by the 2028 full-capacity date. Section I: ICSG April and October 2026 and Wood Mackenzie rows added; the stale deficit headline corrected in place; stock-maldistribution and TC/RC paragraphs added; price paragraph added. Section II: ledger extended from Oct 2025 to Oct 2026 with the Block Cave restart and the 2028 delay. Section IV: Anglo–Teck and Freeport rows updated. Section V: tariff scope corrected (cathode was never covered by the 50% rate), the pending cathode decision and US stock build added as rows. Section VI: three indicator rows updated. Sources 19–32 added; 41 new sourced figures; two corrections logged.
IThe balanceIIThe 2025 disruption ledgerIIISupply and refiningIVThe corporate mapVPolicy: tariffs and critical-mineral statusVIIndicators to monitorVIISources
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