Spot has sat at $89–90/lb for three weeks while the long-term contract price holds at $97, its highest since 2007; the physical trust trades at a 13% discount to the uranium it holds.1High
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
First entry. Spot $89.90/lb on 17 Oct 2026; TradeTech long-term $97/lb since June, the highest since July 2007; SPUT 81.7 m lb, NAV $21.61, unit price $18.81, a 12.95% discount. Cameco's first-half Canadian production fell 5% on Saskatchewan flooding; Paladin's Langer Heinrich output fell 19% quarter on quarter.12
An individual cannot hold uranium: it is licensed material, stored only at converters' facilities in Canada, France and the United States. But a listed closed-end trust holds 82 million pounds there and prices it daily, so exposure is a brokerage trade with full transparency on what is owned. The grade stops at Σ2 because the trust's unit can trade 10–15% away from the metal it holds, because the published spot price is a consultants' estimate from a thin market, and because the material is subject to export control and, for Russian-origin supply, sanction.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
The only energy commodity whose buyers are a few hundred reactor operators, whose sellers are two companies and a dozen smaller ones, and whose price is not set on any exchange. Uranium does not trade openly; utilities and producers sign private contracts, two consultancies infer a price from what they are told, and a Toronto trust that buys physical pounds has since 2021 been the marginal buyer in the spot market. This page covers the two-price system, supply concentration, the demand case and the contracting cycle, the routes to exposure and what each actually holds, and what to watch. No prices are carried as live values.
The headline is the spot price; reactors are fuelled on the term price.
Uranium has no exchange. UxC and TradeTech publish month-end spot and long-term indicators derived from the transactions reported to them; Cameco republishes the industry average. Spot covers the discretionary, near-term slice of the market, around 55 m lb a year and falling; long-term contracts, 116 m lb in 2025 and rising, are how utilities actually buy, at prices with floors and ceilings that escalate over years. In 2026 the term indicator rose every month to $97/lb while spot posted three down months and settled near $90.134 High
| Date | Spot | Long-term | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2022 | $52.28 | $51.00 | Cameco industry averages4 |
| Oct 2023 | $74.38 | $64.00 | 4 |
| Oct 2024 | $80.50 | $81.50 | 4 |
| Oct 2025 | $80.00 | $85.00 | Spot dipped to $77 in a quiet month45 |
| Dec 2025 | $81.55 | – | +12% on the year6 |
| Jan 2026 | $101 (brief) | – | Spike and retreat2 |
| Oct 2026 | $89.90 | $97.00 | Term at an 18-year high1 |
Mining is concentrated; conversion and enrichment are more so.
| Stage | Who | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan, c. 40% of world output, in-situ leach); Cameco (Canada: McArthur River, Cigar Lake; 19.5–21.5 m lb guided for 2026); Orano, CGN, Uranium One, Paladin, BHP Olympic Dam | Cameco H1 2026 production −5% on Saskatchewan flooding; Langer Heinrich Q3 −19% q/q; Kazatomprom's acid supply and JV allocations constrain its Inkai deliveries237 |
| Conversion (U3O8 → UF6) | Cameco (Port Hope), Orano (France), ConverDyn (US), Rosatom | Four plants worldwide; the physical trusts' uranium is stored here |
| Enrichment | Rosatom (c. 40% of capacity), Urenco, Orano, CNNC | US ban on Russian enriched uranium imports from 2028 (waivers to then); the Western bottleneck |
| Secondary supply | Government stockpiles, underfeeding, reprocessed material | Shrinking; was a quarter of supply in the 2010s |
New mines take seven to ten years from decision to first production, and the price collapse of 2011–20 stopped most development. Supply responds, but on a timetable longer than any contract cycle, which is why the term price has risen without pause while spot stalls. Med
Reactors are inelastic buyers; the question is when they sign.
Nuclear fuel is a small share of a reactor's cost, so utilities do not cut consumption when the price rises; they delay signing. The World Nuclear Association projects demand up 28% by 2030 on life extensions, restarts (Japan, Palisades, Three Mile Island 1) and new builds in China, India and the Gulf; data-centre power agreements have added a buyer class that did not exist in 2022. Contracting volumes recovered from 2023, and Sprott's 2026 outlook calls the cycle "re-accelerating" on policy clarity.58 Med
Nobody holds yellowcake at home; the question is which paper holds it for you.
| Route | What you own | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.U / U.UN) | A unit of a closed-end trust holding 81.7 m lb of U3O8 at licensed converters; NAV published daily | Units trade at a premium or discount to NAV: −12.95% on 16 Oct 2026; the trust buys only at a premium and never sells, so the discount can persist1 |
| Yellow Cake plc (LSE: YCA) | Physical U3O8 bought from Kazatomprom under a long-term option | Same discount dynamic; London-listed |
| Producers: Cameco, Kazatomprom GDRs, Paladin, NexGen | Equity in a miner | Operational, political and hedging risk; Cameco's contract book caps its upside; Kazatomprom is 75% state-owned |
| ETFs: URA, URNM, URNJ | Baskets of miners plus a SPUT holding (URA 7.7% SPUT, 23% Cameco) | Equity beta, not metal9 |
| CME UxC futures | Cash-settled contract on the UxC spot indicator | Thin; no delivery |
| Direct holding | Not available to individuals; licensed facilities only | The reason the route, not the metal, is graded |
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
| Indicator | Source & cadence | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Spot and long-term indicators | UxC, TradeTech, weekly and month-end; Cameco republishes | The two prices; the term price is the one that matters |
| SPUT holdings, NAV and premium/discount | Sprott, daily | Whether the marginal spot buyer is active |
| Term contracting volume | UxC annual; Cameco disclosure | The utility cycle |
| Kazatomprom and Cameco production guidance | Quarterly reports | Primary supply; disruptions at Inkai, McArthur River, Cigar Lake |
| Russian enrichment waivers and sanctions | US DOE; EU | The Western fuel bottleneck |
| Reactor restarts, extensions, new-build FIDs and data-centre PPAs | WNA, IAEA PRIS, utility announcements | Demand beyond the base case |
Numbered in order of first citation. Sources 10–12 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.