The world's only agricultural cartel with a strategic reserve has just run it to zero: two record harvests, tariff front-running and a 16% export surge emptied 133 million pounds of capacity, and the price is still set by the Federation, not the market.123High
What is covered
Bulk maple syrup produced in Québec and sold through the Québec Maple Syrup Producers (PPAQ) joint plan, the Global Strategic Maple Syrup Reserve, and production quota (taps). US and other-province production is covered as context. Retail bottled syrup is not an asset and is not covered.
Principal markets
Québec (Centre-du-Québec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent) · Laurierville, Plessisville and Saint-Antoine-de-Tilly reserve warehouses · Vermont, New York, Maine · export to 69 countries, 65% of it to the United States
Structure
Supply concentrationVery high; Québec 72% of world output under one sellerLiquidityNone outside the plan; administered priceScarcityWeather-driven year to year; none structurallyProvenance riskLow; graded and inspected on delivery
Holding horizon
None · administered
There is nothing to hold. Bulk syrup in Québec must be delivered to the Federation in the season it is made, graded and paid at an administered price; the Federation, not the producer, decides whether it ships or goes into the reserve. The only holding is a sugar bush with quota, a farming business whose horizon is the trees.29DerivedHigh
Exit depth · administered market
RoutesQuébec bulk: sale only to a PPAQ-authorised buyer at the Federation price; direct retail sales of small containers are the sole exception. Outside Québec, US bulk buyers (Bascom in New Hampshire is the largest) set their own prices, anchored to Québec's. A sugar bush with quota sells as farmland.29 href="#s10">10HighActivityThe reserve's 133 m lb capacity has been run to zero and remaining contracted syrup is expected gone by February 2027; the Federation has added 21 m taps in five years. US bulk buyers paid US$2.60/lb for top grades in 2026, Québec about US$2.60; USDA reports US bulk at $2.80/lb for 2025. Quota itself is allocated by the Federation, not traded.210 href="#s11">11ReportedHighCostLevies of about 14¢/lb on all bulk syrup graded fund the Federation, plus promotion and reserve charges; cash authorised buyers pay C$1,450 a barrel on receipt, credit buyers pay over months with carrying charges at prime plus 1%. Producers who sell outside the system have faced seizure and fines.2ReportedHighTimeDelivery to the buyer within the season; payment on receipt from a cash buyer or spread over months from a credit buyer, with the Federation paying producers gradually as inventory sells. A sugar bush takes months to sell and the quota transfers with the land at the Federation's discretion.2ReportedMed
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Since last update
First entry. PPAQ's president said on 19 October 2026 that the Strategic Reserve "has been reduced to zero" and remaining contracted syrup will be gone by end-February; 2026 production was 229.5 m lb on 58.6 m taps; exports rose 15.8% in 2025 ahead of US tariffs and 2.5% January–August 2026.123
Why Σ4
There is no way to hold maple syrup. Bulk production in Québec must be sold through the Federation at a price it sets, graded on delivery, and either shipped or barrelled into the reserve the Federation owns; a producer cannot store and sell later, and an outsider cannot buy a barrel. The only route to exposure is a sugar bush with quota, which is a farming business in one Canadian province whose output is sold to a single buyer and whose expansion depends on the Federation issuing taps. Valuation is therefore administrative, exit is to the plan, and access is land and a licence. The reserve going to zero is a supply story that a holder cannot trade.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
Valuation
Exit
Custody
Title and transfer
Access
Intangible premium
Full report 6 sections · 12 sources · open ↓close ↑
The nearest thing in agriculture to OPEC, with a warehouse. This page covers the joint plan and how it prices, the reserve and why it is empty, the harvest and tap arithmetic, the risks specific to a managed market, and what to watch. No prices are carried as live values.
0 lb
Global Strategic Maple Syrup Reserve, Oct 2026, from 40 m lb in June 2025 and a capacity of 133 m lb (218,000 barrels)124
229.5 m lb
Québec production 2026; 225 m in 2025 ($750 m); record 239 m in 2024; ten-year average 168 m35
72%
Québec's share of world maple syrup; 85% exported to 69 countries; 65% of exports to the US25
58.6 m
Taps in operation 2026; 7 m issued in 2025; 178 m potential35
IThe joint plan
One seller, a quota since 2004, a minimum price and a warehouse.
The Québec Maple Syrup Producers (PPAQ; QMSP in English) represent some 8,400 enterprises and 13,000 producers under a joint plan created in 1990, with a strategic reserve since 2000 and production quotas since 2004. The plan sets minimum bulk prices by grade, allocates taps, inspects and grades every barrel delivered, and sells to authorised buyers; unsold syrup is pasteurised and stored in the Federation's warehouses. Québec produces 72% of the world's maple syrup, so the plan's price is the world price.245High
Scroll for more →
Instrument
What it is
Who can hold it
Tap quota
Right to operate a number of taps and sell the output through the plan; issued by PPAQ (7 m in 2025)
Québec producers; transferable with the sugar bush, subject to the plan
Bulk syrup
Barrels graded on delivery and paid at the plan price, part on delivery and part when sold
Producers until delivery; then the plan
Reserve stock
Pasteurised unsold syrup held in three warehouses
PPAQ only
Retail and small-container sales
Outside the bulk plan; producers may sell direct in containers of 5 litres or less
Anyone; not an investable stock
The 2025 crop of 225 m lb was valued at $750 m, about C$3.33 a pound at the farm gate, which is the order of the plan's bulk price; a 2024 report put the industry's GDP contribution at $1.21 bn for 2025. The 2012 theft of 9,500 barrels from the Saint-Louis-de-Blandford warehouse, worth C$18 m and replaced with water, remains the plan's best-known event and the reason the reserve now pasteurises and audits.236Med
IIThe reserve, and why it is empty
From 100 m lb to zero in five years, through two record harvests.
2020–21
Pandemic demand surge; the reserve, built to over 100 m lb, is drawn down through poor 2021 and 2023 harvests.47
Early 2024
Reserve at 6.9 m lb, a sixteen-year low; 35 m lb a year earlier.4
2024
Record 239 m lb harvest, Québec +92% on 2023; reserve partly rebuilt; pasteurisation record of 45 m lb.47
Jun 2025
225 m lb harvest, second-largest ever; reserve "just over 40 m lb" and "still on the low side"; 7 m new taps issued because sales are expected to absorb the whole crop; US tariff threat cited.3
2025
Exports +15.8% as buyers front-run tariffs; sales had already risen 23% in 2024 to 172 m lb.15
Oct 2026
229.5 m lb harvest. PPAQ: reserve "reduced to zero"; contracted syrup exhausted by end-February; risk of losing customers if the 2027 sap run is poor.12
A reserve designed to smooth weather has been emptied by demand in two of the three best harvest years on record. That is not a weather problem; it is the plan selling everything it can make at a price it chose not to raise enough to ration. The 2027 season now depends on six weeks of freeze-thaw in March and April with no buffer. Med123
IIIHarvest and taps
Yield per tap, taps per plan, and the United States.
2023
c. 95 m lb
2024
239 m lb
2025
225 m lb
2026
229.5 m lb
10-yr average
168 m lb
Québec production. 2023 derived from Statistics Canada's +92% for 2024 (18 m gallons at c. 11 lb a gallon). Med357
Yield was 4.04 lb a tap in 2025 on 55.6 m taps; 58.6 m taps in 2026. PPAQ counts 178 m potential taps in Québec and says 120 m more will be needed by 2080. Canada as a whole made 18.9 m gallons in 2025, Québec 90% of it; Vermont, New York and Maine are the principal US producers and the US is also the principal customer, taking about 65% of Québec exports, which is why tariff policy moved the 2025 numbers more than weather did.157High
IVRisks in a managed market
For the only holders there are, the producers.
Scroll for more →
Risk
Mechanism
Note
Administered price
The plan sets the bulk price; producers receive part on delivery and the balance when sold
Deferred payment is the producer's exposure to the reserve's sell-through
Quota
Expansion only when PPAQ issues taps; 2025's 7 m were the response to an empty reserve
Growth is a policy decision, not a business one
Weather
Six weeks of freeze-thaw decide the crop; 2023 was 40% of 2024
Without a reserve, 2027 volatility passes straight to customers
Tariffs
65% of exports go to the US
2025's surge was front-running; the reversal is the risk
Substitution
US producers outside the plan; Vermont expansion
Québec's share has fallen from over 75% as US output grows Med
Governance
A compulsory marketing board; producers who sell outside it have been pursued in court
Legal and political risk to the plan itself
Custody and title are the plan's strengths: every barrel is inspected, graded and recorded on delivery, and the Federation's warehouses are pasteurised, audited and insured since 2012. None of that is available to anyone but the Federation. High
VIndicators to monitor
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
Scroll for more →
Indicator
Source & cadence
What it tells you
Strategic Reserve inventory
PPAQ, annual at 31 August; statements through the year
The buffer; zero means the next crop is the whole supply
Québec production estimate
PPAQ / Groupe AGÉCO survey, June; Statistics Canada, December
The crop; yield per tap
Taps issued
PPAQ, annual
Supply policy three to five years out
Bulk price grid by grade
PPAQ, annual
The administered price
Exports by destination
Statistics Canada; PPAQ economic report
Demand and tariff effects; US share
US production
USDA NASS, June
Supply outside the plan
March–April freeze-thaw cycles
Environment Canada
The season, in real time
VISources
Numbered in order of first citation. PPAQ is the primary source for production, taps and the reserve; Canadian press for the October 2026 statements. Sources 9–12 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.
Show 12 sources
BNN Bloomberg / The Canadian Press, "Quebec's strategic maple syrup reserve running dry amid high demand", 19 Oct 2026: Luc Goulet, "reduced to zero"; exports +15.8% in 2025, +2.48% Jan–Aug 2026; GDP contribution $1.21 bn; over 70% of North American production. bnnbloomberg.ca
The Globe and Mail, "Strategic maple syrup reserve close to empty, producers say", Oct 2026: contracted syrup gone by end-February; capacity 133 m lb, 218,000 barrels, c. $400 m; minimum prices and quotas; c. 70% of world, 65% to the US. theglobeandmail.com
PPAQ, "Québec Maple Syrup Producers Announce Excellent Harvest, Issue of 7 Million New Taps", 16 Jun 2025: 225 m lb, $750 m; 2024 record 239 m; reserve just over 40 m lb; US trade relations; AGÉCO survey method. ppaq.ca
PPAQ, "Québec Maple Syrup Producers Reveal What's Inside The Famous Global Strategic Reserve", 11 Jun 2025: reserve since 2000; Laurierville 55 m lb; total 133 m lb, 218,000 barrels, c. $450 m; 45 m lb pasteurised in 2024; and Al Jazeera, Apr 2024: 6.9 m lb low, 35 m lb a year earlier; 2012 heist, 9,500 barrels, C$18 m. ppaq.ca
PPAQ, "Economic" and home page, Oct 2026: 85% exported to 69 countries; ten-year average 168 m lb; 72% of world; 55.6 m taps (2025), 58.6 m (2026); 178 m potential; 229.5 m lb in 2026; 2024 sales +23% to 172 m lb; 4.04 lb a tap. ppaq.ca
Maple Terroir, "The Hidden Truth Behind Real Maple Syrup Sap Values", 2025: quota since 2004; c. 70% of global production; reserve 133 m lb. Trade source. Medmapleterroir.com
Maple Terroir citing Statistics Canada (11 Dec 2025), "Canadian Maple Syrup Production Report 2025": Canada 18.9 m gallons 2025, −5.1% from 19.9 m record; Québec 17.0 m gallons, 90%; Québec 2024 18 m gallons, +92.2% on 2023; reserve at a sixteen-year low before 2024. mapleterroir.com
Al Jazeera, "Inside the pressures facing Quebec's billion-dollar maple syrup industry", 15 Apr 2024: PPAQ represents 13,000 producers; quota system; reserve lowest in over fifteen years. aljazeera.com
PPAQ, "Become an Authorized Buyer": only authorised buyers may purchase bulk syrup from Québec producers; cash buyers pay C$1,450 per barrel on receipt; credit buyers pay 30% by the 15th of the following month with carrying charges at Desjardins prime +1%. "Guide for New Maple Producers": 14¢/lb levy on all syrup graded, further per-pound charges for promotion and reserve. ppaq.caHigh
The Maple News, "Bascom's announces a 20-cent increase for new crop syrup", 23 Mar 2026: US$2.60/lb Golden and Amber, $2.55 Dark, $2.35 Very Dark, $1.60 processing; Québec producer price about US$2.60/lb; reserve near empty and rationed to preferred buyers. themaplenews.comHigh
USDA NASS via Find Homegrown, "How Much to Sell Maple Syrup For: 2026 Price Guide", Sep 2026, citing USDA Crop Production 11 Jun 2026: US bulk $2.80/lb in 2025 ($2.60 in 2024); wholesale $48.70/gal; retail $56.70/gal; 2026 US crop 5.88 m gal. findhomegrown.comMed
The Rotten Apple, "Issue 235: Maple Syrup Fraud in Canada", May 2026: PPAQ as mandatory sales agent for almost all bulk syrup; pays producers gradually as inventory sells; investigations, seizures, security guards and civil claims against producers selling outside the system. therottenapple.substack.comMed