The platinum deficit has become a forecast surplus, made entirely of investors leaving; above-ground stocks are the thinnest in the series. Both metals near 2026 lows.19High
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WPIC's 9 September report, missed at the last update, flipped 2026 from a 297 koz deficit to a 265 koz surplus on H1 investment outflows, and deepened the 2025 deficit to 1,440 koz.19 Platinum ~$1,630–1,650 on 18–19 Oct, −9% on the month and flat on the year; palladium ~$1,114–1,140, at the bottom of its 52-week range.202122 The deficit claim carried on 5 October is corrected below.
Platinum and palladium have twice-daily LBMA benchmark auctions, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration since 1 July 2026, plus NYMEX futures and physically backed ETFs. Spot liquidity is thinner than gold or silver, and rhodium has no exchange benchmark. Custody is standard; supply is concentrated in South Africa and Russia.
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Six metals mined together from two geological provinces, priced apart, and consumed mostly inside exhaust systems. Platinum ran three deepening deficits; 2026 is now forecast as a small surplus made entirely of investment outflows, with stocks at 3.4 months of cover. Palladium's balance is disputed between the two independent houses. South Africa's largest producer has been spun out of Anglo American. This page covers the balance, supply concentration, demand by end-use, the corporate map and the assumptions behind the outlook. No prices are carried as live values.
World Platinum Investment Council data, prepared by Metals Focus.
| Year | Balance (koz) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | −802 | First of the run; restated in the September 2026 table19 |
| 2024 | −1,096 | Restated from −92119 1 |
| 2025 | −1,440 | Restated from −1,082 by a prior-year adjustment of 249 koz; supply 7,231 koz (−1%), demand 8,671 koz (+3%)19 |
| Q1 2026 | +304 | Surplus; ETF holdings −300 koz19 |
| Q2 2026 | +244 | Second surplus; supply 1,906 koz (+1%), demand 1,663 koz (−16%); ETF outflows 234 koz, bar and coin −71%, jewellery −32%19 |
| 2026f | +265 | Reversed from −297 (May report); supply +2% to 7,353 koz on recycling, demand −18% to 7,089 koz; net disinvestment 83 koz, ETF outflow 389 koz, exchange stocks −112 koz; H2 deficit of 283 koz forecast19 3 |
| 2026f–2030f | c.−331 average | WPIC five-year outlook, mid-2026; predates the September reversal2 |
Above-ground stocks in WPIC's definition exclude ETF holdings, exchange-vault metal and working inventories; they are the residual pool that has financed three years of deficits.5 For 2026 the September table has industrial demand +5% to 2,385 koz, upgraded 147 koz on AI-related glass (+23%) and electrical (+19%) demand; jewellery −15% to 1,883 koz, concentrated in China; automotive −4% to 2,904 koz as catalysed light-vehicle output falls 1%; mine supply flat at 5,551 koz; recycling +8% to 1,802 koz.19 High Platinum fell 24% in H1 2026, 46% from the late-January high of $2,875, and lease rates fell from over 10% to below 5%: the physical squeeze of 2025 has unwound even as the stock position has not been rebuilt.19 A market can be in surplus on paper and still have three months of cover.
Platinum $1,626 on 18 October and $1,647 on 19 October, down 8.6% on the month, roughly flat on the year, and 40–44% below the January high; the 2026 average to date is $1,931 against $1,286 for 2025.20 21 24 High LBMA's Q3 report records platinum +9.22% in Q3 but −19.60% year to date; palladium +1.43% and −25.53%.26 High Palladium's Umicore 10am price slid from $1,185 on 1 October to $1,140 on 16 October (monthly average $1,156); Kitco spot $1,114 on 19 October, within $50 of the 52-week low.23 22 High
Two countries, deep-level mines, and no growth projects.
Shares are from a secondary overview consistent with WPIC and Johnson Matthey publications; the Russian palladium share is inferred from Nornickel guidance of c.2.6–2.7 Moz against total palladium supply of c.9.4 Moz. Med Derived9 8 7
| Producer | Base | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Valterra Platinum (ex-Anglo American Platinum) | South Africa, Zimbabwe | World's largest platinum producer; demerged from Anglo American 31 May 2025; LSE listing 2 June 2025 alongside JSE; Anglo's residual 19.9% placed from September 202510 11 12 |
| Impala Platinum (Implats) | South Africa, Zimbabwe (Zimplats), Canada | Absorbed Royal Bafokeng Platinum 2023–2413 |
| Sibanye-Stillwater | South Africa, US (Stillwater) | c.1.84 Moz 4E South African PGM production 2024; acquired Lonmin 20198 13 |
| Northam Platinum | South Africa | Fourth of the Bushveld core8 |
| Nornickel | Russia (Norilsk-Talnakh) | World's largest palladium producer; 2024 guidance c.2.6–2.7 Moz; 2025 output declining on grades8 13 |
| Zimbabwe (Great Dyke) | Zimplats, Unki (Valterra), Mimosa | National output passed 500 koz8 |
WPIC's structural view is that deep-level underground mining cannot flex and no large growth projects are being built, so mine supply is constrained through 2029; the only responsive supply is recycling, and autocatalyst recycling economics are driven more by palladium than platinum prices.7 4 Valterra's semi-finished inventories, which boosted 2024 refined output, were depleted by 2025.4 High
Autocatalysts, jewellery, industry, hydrogen, and the investment sleeve.
| End-use | Platinum position | Palladium position |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive catalysts | Long tail; WPIC models 2E automotive demand erosion of only 1.4% CAGR 2023–28 as hybrids persist; reverse substitution Pt-for-Pd possible when platinum trades at a premium14 7 | Dominant use; exposed to the slow electrification of the drivetrain4 |
| Jewellery | Recovery in 2025 (+10%); forecast −15% in 2026 to 1,883 koz, China-led; Q2 −32%19 | Minor |
| Industrial (glass, chemicals, medical, electronics) | +5% to 2,385 koz forecast 2026, upgraded on AI data-centre glass and electrical demand; petroleum −28% on Hormuz disruption19 | Electronics, dental |
| Hydrogen (electrolysers, fuel cells) | 77 koz forecast 2026 (+8%); growth option downgraded as FCEV share disappoints; Stellantis halted hydrogen programmes19 7 | , |
| Investment (bars, coins, ETFs, exchange stocks) | The swing factor: +1,152 koz in 2025, −83 koz forecast 2026 (ETFs −389, exchange stocks −112, bar and coin 313)19 | Balance disputed: Johnson Matthey (May) saw a small 2026 surplus; Heraeus/SFA (Sep) a 345 koz deficit before ETF flows25 Med |
The catalyst for 2025's price rise was, in WPIC's words, "arguably geopolitics and US tariffs" on top of the deficits: metal flowed into CME-approved US warehouses on tariff fears, reversed in Q2, and flowed back in Q3.4 5 Security of supply became a buying motive in its own right.4 High
The 2025 demerger and what it changed.
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Sibanye-Stillwater acquires Lonmin | Previous largest sector restructuring13 |
| 2024 | BHP's failed approach for Anglo American | Triggers Anglo's portfolio simplification to copper, iron ore and crop nutrients12 |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Shareholders approve demerger of c.51% of Anglo American Platinum | Clears the path to separation11 |
| 31 May – 2 Jun 2025 | Demerger effective; renamed Valterra Platinum; LSE listing (VALT) alongside JSE | World's largest integrated PGM producer becomes a pure play10 11 |
| 3 Sep 2025 | Anglo places its remaining c.52.2 m Valterra shares | Full separation10 |
The market read was mixed: cleaner exposure for PGM-focused funds, but a producer without a diversified balance sheet to fund the next capital cycle; separation costs for standalone systems were still flowing through in 2025.12 9 Med
What the forecasts rest on.
| Assumption (WPIC, mid-2026) | Detail | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz reopens in Q3 2026 | Base case after the Iran war drove inflation and upward revisions to rate expectations in H1 2026, weighing on non-yielding metals.2 Not met: the September report still cites ongoing shipping disruption and a hit to petroleum-catalyst demand19 | Low |
| Platinum deficits average c.331 koz 2026–30 | c.350 koz a year 2027–30 in the January 2026 outlook; the 2026 leg has since flipped to a 265 koz surplus, so the five-year average awaits revision2 15 19 | Low |
| Palladium surpluses from 2027 | Recycling up over 1.3 Moz a year; timing contingent on recycling recovery; total palladium supply 9,414 koz (2024) rising2 7 | Med |
| No mine-supply growth to 2029 | Structural inflexibility of deep-level mines; no large growth projects7 | High |
| Automotive demand resilient | 2E automotive erosion 1.4% CAGR 2023–28; hybrid growth; 2026 now −4%, with China and Europe weak and North America and India offsetting14 19 | Med |
| AI infrastructure as a new demand leg | WPIC cites c.$300bn of Chinese and $500bn of US AI buildout; 2026 glass demand +23% and electrical +19%. Producer-council framing; magnitude unverified elsewhere19 | Low |
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
| Indicator | Source & cadence | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Platinum and palladium balances | WPIC Platinum Quarterly (next 18 Nov 2026); WPIC Platinum Essentials; Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report (May, November); Heraeus/SFA for palladium cross-check | Deficit size and above-ground-stock cover |
| Exchange stocks | CME/NYMEX warehouse reports, daily; GFEX (Guangzhou) stocks now included in WPIC balances | Tariff-driven flows that swing the balance; WPIC expects a 112 koz unwind in 2026 |
| Lease rates | Market data; WPIC commentary | Physical tightness; fell from over 10% to below 5% in H1 2026 |
| Producer output and guidance | Valterra, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam quarterlies; Nornickel quarterly production | Mine supply; Russian volumes |
| Eskom load-shedding and rand basket price | Eskom notices; company reports | South African cost and shaft-closure risk |
| Autocatalyst loadings and hybrid share | OEM disclosures; WPIC automotive research | Long-tail demand; Pt-for-Pd substitution |
| US tariff and critical-minerals policy | USTR; USGS; Department of Energy critical materials list | Flows into US warehouses; strategic stockpiling |
Numbered in order of first citation. WPIC reports are primary for supply and demand; Anglo American and Valterra releases for corporate events. Sources 28–31 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.