Through $60: ~$57 in mid-October, down a tenth on the month after the Fed's September hike took 10-year yields past 5%. The year-on-year gain has shrunk to single digits.14High
Context for Liquidity, not a rating. Definitions → · Themes covering this market are listed at the end of the brief.
Silver $57.26 on 18 Oct, from $61.4 at the last update; −9% on the month, +7% on the year as the October 2025 squeeze drops into the base.1415 LBMA's Q3 report puts the quarter at +4.3% inside a $55–70 range and the gold:silver ratio at 69.13 COMEX registered stock has rebuilt to 103 Moz; London vaults hold 28,985 t, up 3.2% on the quarter.2013 Two inventory figures carried since launch are corrected below.
The LBMA Silver Price, set once daily at noon in London, and liquid ETFs give daily valuation and quick exit. Storage costs more than gold per dollar held because of weight and volume, but custody is standard. Title and transfer are standardised.
The Σ grade is ΣΟΦΙΑ's opinion of how practical the asset is to hold. Not a view on return. How it is judged →
Two demand pools, one supply that cannot grow: industry takes the majority of every ounce mined, investors take the rest, and the market has run a deficit for six years. This page tracks how solar thrifting and a January 2026 blow-off top are reshaping the balance. No live price is carried.
A parabolic January 2026, then the sharpest retracement of any major metal.
Silver set its dollar record of $121.67 on 29 January 2026, the same session in which gold peaked.3 The subsequent retracement was steeper than gold's, consistent with silver's higher beta to rates and growth and its lack of an official-sector buyer to absorb selling.2 High
The gold:silver ratio is the cleanest relative-value gauge: it reached a 100:1 extreme in April 2025 and had compressed to c.61:1 by April 2026 as silver outperformed into and out of its peak.9 A ratio above 80 has historically coincided with investment demand leaving the metal; below 60 with speculative excess. Med
Q3 2026, recorded October. Silver traded around $61 in early October, about half its January record, down ~7% on the month and still ~26% above a year earlier.1112 Against gold near $4,140 that puts the gold:silver ratio at roughly 67:1, up from c.61:1 in April: silver has given back more than gold since spring, consistent with the solar demand cut below. Derived Med
Q4 2026, recorded 19 October. The LBMA Silver Price opened Q3 at $58.25 and closed it at $60.73 (+4.26%), but ranged from $55.29 on 17 July to $70.26 on 28 August; year to date it was −18.2% at 30 September, with the LBMA high $118.45 on 29 January.13 High October then broke the range downward: $60.25 on 9 October, $56.71 on 15 October, $57.26 on 18 October, about 9% below a month earlier.161714 High The year-on-year gain has collapsed from +22% on 9 October to +7% a week later, not because of the October move but because the October 2025 squeeze has entered the comparison base.1615 Derived
The macro driver is unambiguous. The Fed raised the funds rate 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, unanimously, the first hike since 2023, with a majority projecting another before year-end; the 10-year yield crossed 5% the same day and reached 5.11% on 23 September, the highest since 2007.18241923 High The Silver Institute put the gold:silver ratio at 69 at end-September; at $4,179 gold and $57.3 silver on 18 October it is roughly 73, back toward the April 2025 extreme's direction of travel.1314 Derived Med
World Silver Survey 2026 (Silver Institute / Metals Focus, 15 April 2026).
| Line | 2025 (Moz) | 2026F (Moz) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mine production | 846.6 | 844.1 | +3% in 2025; −0.3% forecast for 2026 as Mexican gains are offset elsewhere High2 13 |
| Recycling | 197.6 | , | 12-year high in 2025 High2 |
| Total supply | , | 1,066.4 | Forecast −2% as producer hedging normalises Med6 8 |
| Total demand | c.1,130 | 1,112.6 | −2% in 2025 and again forecast −2% Med2 6 |
| Balance | −40.3 | −46.3 | Sixth consecutive deficit; widening despite falling demand High1 |
Cumulative drawdown from above-ground stocks 2021–2025 is stated as 762.1 Moz, approaching a full year of mine output.4 Med Mexico remained the largest producer at 172.9 Moz (roughly a fifth of mine supply), though its output fell 5% for a third straight year while Peru rose 7%.7 High
Industry and investment rarely move together, which is what makes the metal volatile.
Up from c.50% a decade ago; on track to exceed 720 Moz in 2026 across solar, electronics, EV, data centres and 5G.8 Med
Silver ETPs recorded estimated inflows of 68.3 Moz in 2025; retail demand surged into 2026 and produced liquidity squeezes in physical product.6 1 Med ETF flows are now two-way: SLV lost $29m in the week to 8 September while gold funds took $2bn, then took in $219m in the week to 16 October even as it fell 6%.22 21 Med
| Year | PV silver demand (Moz) | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 186.6 | , | Record solar installations High4 |
| 2026F | c.151 | −19% | Largest single-year cut on record; thinner paste, better printing, copper metallisation Med4 |
| 2026 (J.P. Morgan view) | c.−60 Moz | c.−30% | Chinese destocking after the 1 April VAT-rebate removal; India duty to 15% on 13 May Med5 |
LONGi, the largest module maker, told investors on 5 January 2026 that it would mass-produce base-metal (copper) cells from Q2, the clearest statement yet that the record price is engineering silver out of its largest industrial use.2 LBMA's Q3 report records a further leading Chinese producer announcing copper substitution at the start of July, with silver then ~120% above a year earlier.13 High Installations can keep rising while silver demand falls; a headline about record solar deployment says nothing about loading per cell.5
Where six years of deficit have been paid from.
| Stock | Reference | Latest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX registered | 97.2 Moz, 16 Sep 2026 | 103.1 Moz | 16 Oct 2026; +6.1% in 30 days. CME warehouse report via metalcharts High20 |
| COMEX eligible | , | 230.6 Moz | Total 333.8 Moz; eligible is stored, not deliverable High20 |
| London vaults (LBMA) | 28,082 t, end Jun 2026 | 28,985 t | End Sep 2026, +3.22% q/q, valued $56.6bn High13 21 |
| London free float | , | c.300 Moz | End Jun 2026 estimate: 902.8 Moz held, 602 Moz identifiable ETF/ETC metal, so about a third is unallocated Med21 |
The inventory picture has therefore inverted since the January squeeze: metal is flowing back into both exchange and London vaults while the price falls, which is the normal signature of investor dishoarding rather than industrial tightness. China's silver export-licensing rules were a factor in the 2025 rally.6 Unlike gold, there is no official-sector buyer to absorb this, so the free-float estimate above, not the headline vault total, is the number to watch. Q3 average daily LBMA volume was 429 Moz, down from a 510 Moz year-to-date average.13 High
Recurring data points that move this analysis. No live values are carried on this page.
| Indicator | Source & cadence | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Market balance and solar demand | Silver Institute World Silver Survey (April) and Interim Review (November) | Whether the deficit is widening and how much thrifting has actually occurred |
| Visible inventories | LBMA vault report and CME warehouse stocks, monthly | The only tightness gauge in a market with no official-sector buyer |
| Copper-metallisation volumes | LONGi, Tongwei and peer quarterly disclosures | Whether the solar cut is 19% or 30% |
| Policy on physical flows | China export licences; India import duty notices | Policy, not geology, is the current swing factor |
| Gold:silver ratio | Any exchange feed, daily; LBMA quarterly report for a dated reference | Relative-value regime; 69 at end Q3 2026, ~73 mid-October |
| US 10-year yield and FOMC path | Treasury daily; FOMC 27–28 Oct and 15–16 Dec 2026 | The 2026 retracement has tracked real yields; a second hike is the base case |
Numbered in order of first citation. Sources 25–28 added 23 Oct 2026 for the holding-horizon and exit-depth fields.